道明银行预测：二手屋价 两年内跌一成

get8686

来源：世界日报

! c& c0 {8 h& E/ d/ b: }$ Z5 @. d多伦多道明银行（Toronto-Dominion Bank）的经济学家预测，加拿大房地产市场即将进入温和调整期，今后两年内二手屋价格将平均下跌约10.2%。

由道明银行经济师伯勒顿（Derek Burleton）、古勒蒂（Sonya Gulati）撰写、13公布的加拿大房地产市场展望报告预期，在此次房市冷却期内，温哥华和多伦多的房价跌幅会较大，卡加利和爱民顿表现则较好。
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该报告说：「就业职位和家庭收入成长减缓，贷款利率上涨，再加上最近开始实行的更严格的房贷申请新政策，预期更少首次购屋者入市，是造成这一轮房市冷却的主要因素。」




) F; T* ~* A  W' @1 @+ u& @报告作者指出，在全加平均房价预期将下跌的同时，12个大都会地区的具体表现又将各异。他们预测，由于温哥华和多伦多两地共管公寓近年如雨后春笋般出现，将造成使今后两年平均房价跌幅较大；卡加利、爱民顿和雷琴纳的房市表现则会较好。
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1 E  g. N3 Y, @1 g" d尽管伯勒顿和古勒蒂说加拿大房市盛极而衰，即将进入冷却期，但他们又认为，中期内没有发生房地产市场泡沫破裂的风险。

RowlandSpring

Housing prices to drop over next two years: TD
Story courtesy of FinancialPost.com
Last Updated: Wednesday, July 13, 2011 | 03:01 PM EDT
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Read more: http://www.cbc.ca/fp/story/2011/07/13/5096555.html#ixzz1S2qm3jlj

- U2 n0 u9 F$ m4 U* G1 \( ]OTTAWA — Canada’s housing market is set to undergo a “modest” correction, with resale activity poised to drop 15.2% and average prices likely to fall 10.2% over the next two calendar years, according to a report released by TD Economics Wednesday.
“A combination of more subdued job and household income growth, rising interest rates, the recent tightening in borrowing rules for insured mortgages and fewer first-time home buyers are expected to be the chief culprits behind the slowdown,” said the report, prepared by deputy chief economist Derek Burleton and economist Sonya Gulati.
+ C  U5 P% X% F2 [1 IBut the national numbers will hide considerable regional differences, they added.
! X$ f/ v; ~. @( _& f3 ~3 r6 SVancouver, which they describe as “the poster child for those individuals worried about a real estate bubble here in Canada,” is destined for a thumping 25.4% peak-to-trough decline in sales activity and a 14.8% drop in prices.
Toronto will also be among the hardest hit. Burleton and Gulati expect a gradual correction in sales on the order of 25% over the next seven to eight quarters and a price decline of 11.7%, “as the number of first-time home buyers and investors settle back down to more normal levels.”
Prospects are “considerably better” for housing markets in Calgary, Edmonton and Regina, the report said, although it cautioned that means price and sales activity declines will merely be less pronounced.
* Q% A) j" H. B$ v1 D" mIn Calgary, sales are expected to decline 8.8% from peak to trough over the two-year outlook and prices are expected to dip 6.4%.
1 l  \& T9 l4 `. ^" {+ Z% D5 I3 l2 K0 oIn Edmonton, sales are expected to drop 9.5% from peak to bottom and prices to fall 6.6%.
In Regina, sales are forecast to edge down 3.8% and prices by 6.1%.
# S) T8 D  T1 a3 W' d  K+ ?In the immediate future, TD expects demand to be supportive and that the brunt of the adjustment will take place in 2012 and 2013.
Over the forecast period, the report said the market will be constrained by national economic growth that is expected to slow from 2.8% in 2011 to 2.3% in 2012 and 1.9% in 2013.
As well, personal disposable income will remain subdued, while job creation is anticipated to slow from 1.7% in 2011 to 1.2% over 2012-13.
0 l( F4 I  w5 n4 V8 P1 Y# a“With the forecast growth performances below historical trends, economic activity should not generate enough momentum to sustain above average price and sales gains,” Burleton and Gulati wrote.
3 E- ^9 @  _+ |* O+ cOne of the key reasons is rising interest rates. TD expects the Bank of Canada to resume tightening of credit conditions in January 2012 and lift its key lending rate to two per cent from the current one per cent in 2012. In 2013, rates are expected to rise another full percentage point.
$ N, g! ~) P7 K- J+ mAs well, tighter mortgage rules will further exacerbate the erosion in home affordability caused by rising rates and chase many first-time buyers out of the market.
By 2013, the average resale home will be priced at $334,000, while sales activity will average 416,400 units.
2 Q! M3 u$ r  H5 GCanada Mortgage and Housing Corporation said Tuesday that housing starts are also expected to slow in the months ahead, as new home construction moves back to align itself with demographics.