市场评论

小曲

下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结，贴出来，希望对大家有帮助。
0 z$ X: b0 N: l$ D& V( V
Market Commentary
Eric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer
James Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager
Signature Global Advisors
  }: {; N# v+ J* x( @5 w) K

Background remarks
 Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are
as much as 20% or even 60% of GDP.
 Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal
/ b& @: i1 }6 K: T0 D; W$ B- X1 c, nadjustments.
 This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social
; i7 q* R- w9 o* y+ osafety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded.
- ^1 X$ y, Y' i2 ]% B Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are
lessons to be learned from the frontrunners.
% T1 J  \5 F  P$ f$ n9 @$ n; \ We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these
7 }3 R) C  s. _3 l, uadjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage.
 Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s
quantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market.
 Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth.
 Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have
reduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.

小曲

Current situation
 The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long
as funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may
' r3 {" i/ r% J% q# O# t# `; M  a; pimpose liquidation values.
 In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In
August, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.
. K  n2 h* w% U The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension
: b6 H  U! o" s& U) p3 c6 D7 nscrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.

6 [3 ]4 V  P% b, {+ \A look at credit markets
 Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in
September. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.
 High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%
* J  A, c3 J5 a0 f% e" R: O; Y$ gthen, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1
billion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have
access to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade
CCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are
positive for the year-do-date, including high yield.
 Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble
; X; }  L6 Q2 g: ^* Ifinding financing.
 Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they
were subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.
 Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and
is now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were
) u' ]2 z& O3 L' M+ A0 ogoing up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for
# ^; ?3 f/ v& t8 C* [8 n) ^bankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.
 European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain
today.
2 [( T) `  f: j# |' E0 U7 { Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in
emerging markets have no problem with funding.

小曲

European Union agenda
 Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for
, J" {. r3 J: j5 K* cthe Greek default.
 As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:
9 }/ \. ?1 u6 @1 ]0 S1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default
2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign
debt stabilization, needs government approvals.
8 U$ q. o& q" n# l+ W0 ]3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing
+ r; k% v; j8 bbanks to shrink their balance sheets over three years
5 {3 u+ P5 q$ t4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets.

0 T. c- |, D1 o. p5 pBeyond Greece
 The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain),
. Z- V0 {2 {7 ^8 L: I3 c& H1 dbut that was before Italy.
 It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS.
  J  `8 c( c' L& o. ? It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the
Italian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further.

Conclusion
 We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.

yuz967

kasnkan