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( f+ e+ t/ V% b4 J* U2 W1 ehttp://www.globalnews.ca/money/w ... 42638608/story.html8 I; ?: F: F0 ?8 z* X, G: e; P
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OTTAWA - For most Canadians their home is the biggest investment they'll ever make — but they might be surprised to learn you can use if for more than just sleeping.
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$ I- @1 G& R; }# I$ U4 WPeople generally don't think of their homes as a potential pile of cash in the bank, but experts say it's something worth pondering now that home prices in Canada may have hit their peak.
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) {) h" z' M) z( h6 ?, FIn fact, analysts say if finance is the only consideration, conditions now and into next year or so form a seldom seen sweet spot for using home equity as a type of asset for investment. s9 r, ?( b8 Q1 c$ ?' ~
) ]. I! |& x; e% u: J5 N: fWhy might it be a good time to sell?
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At about $370,000 average nationally — and just under $800,000 in Vancouver — home prices are already at record levels. Many observers believe prices are long due for a downward correction of anywhere from 10 per cent to 25 per cent, perhaps more in some of the hottest markets.
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* q5 O3 G6 h' E; D* V) x"Home prices to income, housing price to rent, all the indicators are setting off warning signals," said Derek Burleton, a senior economist with TD Bank.
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"If you are purely in it for reaping profits, now is not a bad time to sell" before prices drop.
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The profits from selling a home can be used to build savings, eliminate debt, make traditional investments or, ironically, buy more real estate — albeit in a different market where home prices are lower.. {1 P3 o9 Y+ C1 d" G3 }& g
1 w2 i W4 h/ t8 K ~: S" ^Of course, even if it makes sense financially, selling the family home to rent or move to a less expensive housing market doesn't make lifestyle sense for the vast majority of Canadians.- d. N( C2 K; e
; q% b7 g4 o. ?4 E: E$ M, s. ZBurleton knows how they feel.) E; x* L9 n7 C R' _5 d
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"I wouldn't want to sell my home right now even if I wind up taking a hit on the home price, just because I enjoy where I'm living and moving is a pain," he said.
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7 ^2 B5 I) z% z& cWhile there's no guarantee of a correction, observers note there are additional signs that the housing market could cool off in a big way.
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With ownership levels near a record 70 per cent, demand is expected to wane, making it a buyers market for the first time in years.8 W# Q" q' t8 \( Z5 I) @' @, r
/ v* `- s& E: k0 l& y, i, X1 |And Bank of Canada governor Mark Carney warned last month he was preparing to hike rates, which along with tighter lending rules being applied by federal authorities could trigger a flight from real estate.# m) c2 h2 W/ K
6 E' C- w1 g7 A8 h5 r2 X8 oIn market terms, selling a home at the peak is a way of "locking in" profits accumulated over the past decade of price appreciation — and tax free if it's the principal home.( d$ v @2 N$ k( z0 _+ I
, s" T8 R# c% p$ eMeanwhile, home valuations have been rising far faster than the rent they would fetch since at least 2000. Canada's home price-to-rent ratio is well above historic norms and among the highest in the advanced world.) A# s8 X5 A8 b9 k( D# O; U* x
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That is a hard indicator that homes are over-valued, but also that renting is relatively cheap compared to buying.
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2 l" t) m0 F+ W9 p; H. O7 t+ ~David Madani of Capital Economics, who anticipates a 25 per cent price crash over the next few years, cautions that like selling stock shares, timing is always tricky.& {" i' A. E' q+ r
& \# X8 Z; n! B"We're dealing with irrational exuberance. We've been treating housing like some magical financial asset that is going to solve all our problems because prices are always going up," he said.' ]2 V: o7 N, d
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"Of course, when the turn comes, the over-confidence that drove the market up can turn to fear. You are dealing with emotion ... so I don't believe in a soft landing."
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The market is clearly at or near peak, he said, so soon may indeed be the time to act.5 B2 m8 T! x: V' r$ k% }: N
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But then again he felt that way a year ago, he points out, and if households had acted on his advice they might not have gotten all the value they could from the premature sale. |
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发表于 2012-5-12 08:39
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