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REIN August news letter

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发表于 2006-8-25 08:35 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
NEW HOUSING PRICE INDEX...( c& R9 @$ t: B. j4 g

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/ A- Y/ h  j$ C# [% w5 u& u/ ]The New Housing Price Index, has just been released and it provides some very
% b' n, Y5 P. jinteresting insights, not only into where the market has moved, but where it
& p% Q* V4 B2 l# d6 X+ o  l: i' \5 Awill be going.; `& @7 a" h% |
0 n( Z8 C5 Q' I. x& O  N
It proved, once again, the value of looking at fundamentals behind a market.% U5 }8 [9 }0 p* \! w6 Z

* j* g5 R3 G+ y9 LThe New Housing Price Index is compiled by Statistics Canada and is used by% `/ K4 V5 V0 w0 O% p7 w# K
sophisticated investors to see how much the market has moved, as well as an- B5 Q7 l3 ~: j( \
indicator of where re-sale home prices will be moving in the coming six months. : [8 e% M/ W- F, p. d( Z
We look at the ripple effect that new housing prices have on re-sale property
1 G7 N/ }1 N" Y* |: @. w& }values and can extrapolate what direction re-sale prices will be moving and by
+ Y$ ?6 j+ C% ]* e6 S' A4 ?how much.
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For instance, for the last three years, we have told investors to avoid Windsor,, F/ O! W* Q# _7 U) c
Ontario as an investment area because the underlying fundamentals are not very
/ L- V# I8 u, B1 H" Zstrong.  This has been proven once again with the release of the latest. j+ l# E8 |5 x8 W8 X! i# p$ h
findings.  New Housing Prices have actually decreased by .5% during June 2005 -! @  T& D9 {8 c: f( U
June 2006 proving that fundamental investing works in helping you pick the best% n/ p+ B4 U- k- G  I
markets and avoid the flat ones.   This .5% decrease should have little impact
* E, ~/ r) p- Ton average re-sale values in the Windsor region.
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To contrast this, the fundamentals we discuss are so strong in Calgary that the
5 V7 z4 g6 ?' R6 Pmarket continues to be super heated.  With close to 3,000 net new people into+ u0 R0 o9 U  Q
the city every month, the property market just can't keep up.  That is why we
0 k! o; n2 k( M8 k" F2 d$ o1 Csaw the New Housing Price Index increase by 49.2% (June 2005 to June 2006). 8 q& M0 B' L) n1 o% T- H3 g* x
This is great news for the future of re-sale values in the city as these
$ [: i8 X5 N' b" P4 Fincreases will continue to ripple out into the market for at least the next six
$ \. o: Y* K0 |2 G. ?months.  
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Comparing these two regions is a great illustration of the value of not getting
* Y# G/ B- ]7 X* f; \; W" N6 Rcaught in the 'emotional guessing game' by just focusing on the underlying+ h) q/ A0 p4 e- O: F9 n/ \
fundamentals.   It is sad to see those people who said in the last 2 years that
& v' o9 ~0 r7 Wthe Alberta real estate market was over and they were going to sit back and wait
  Y) S4 ^8 T0 u' c' a$ V/ b# `until it drops.  Quite obviously, they have missed out on AMAZING gains, all. h+ N8 x& N4 G6 w
because they didn't follow fundamentals, they just led with their emotions.
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By the way, Edmonton's New Housing Price Index is up an amazing 28% so far (June
1 T) g! Y; G$ N7 v2005 to June 2006), also great news.1 [4 v- w9 {8 G5 b! M, p( i
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By comparison across the country, these are the numbers for June 2005 - June& T- n* v2 \) R/ G
2006 New Housing Price Index for:
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Vancouver . . . . . . . .   +5.2%1 G- z. u' K: b* Y5 Z  b1 U; Z
Saskatoon . . . . . . . .  +8.5%7 A7 e- t* t, F  G4 i% `
London . . . . . . . . . . .  +3.0%
( U% l$ t/ A$ [8 R0 {% \2 mHamilton . . . . . . . . . .  +4.9%# G5 ^$ Q7 ~+ u8 w" U; a& I7 F
St. Catharines - Niagara . . . . +4.9%0 Y& q# f6 Z" y: K5 z
Toronto and Oshawa . . . . . . . +3.2
( Z+ a) A- S: H- q1 k& K5 R& iOttawa - Gatineau . . . . . . . . .  +3.1%- q6 N+ }# P9 l, R

3 J5 S% J2 r% ^4 S% ~: jFundamental investing ALWAYS makes you look like a genius - emotional investing- d7 v; D& }4 a5 l+ ~' x3 |) [8 D
gives you quick highs, but also quick lows.  Well done on your focus!
  j8 m3 N0 b; c7 c: Q: \2 |* k* A0 M( v& e1 C. y& E$ ]0 C
As the fundamentals have been showing all along, the Alberta market continues to. y$ W( o" b, @9 m/ I5 @9 v5 |
be strong, as in-migration and job creation continues to attract people from not
' B" q! `7 ?8 P9 i8 ]) Konly across Canada, but from around the world.  Our average wages are
# t$ F, B, z% i( q* ~increasing, our population is increasing, our unemployment rate continues to+ @2 e/ F, F- q" j" R# O$ O
drop and our GDP growth is slated to once again lead the country.
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5 b- ]7 r. e& ]( ~5 }0 \+ G* z+ ?, S, nHere are some very interesting facts that are helping to support the strong/ W* s* q5 ]9 ], t
fundamentals:1 h- n4 t4 P8 b  v' X
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1. The Conference Board of Canada is forecasting strong economic growth in
6 i4 G" `5 d7 v" \, |2 SCanada, with Alberta once again leading the way.  In fact, the projected growth# n- G  T+ P; c" S+ s# v6 r1 {
for Alberta's economy is a staggering 6.6%.  (BC + 3.6%, Ontario + 2.5%), and
3 X  ^% v+ F" V. z! othis is slated to occur even with the labour shortages we are witnessing." }4 E' y6 K: e7 |+ ^. j" }
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2.  People are discovering Canada as an investment center from all over the
  k2 {6 g" V! l( m2 oworld.  Recently, there have been investors coming here from Asia, Australia,
5 C6 C9 r5 C2 N" kthe US, UK and Europe.  In fact, if you review the world's press you will see
3 f$ `2 N% C  A7 ]: Zthat Canada (with a focus on Alberta) is being discussed more frequently. 2 s" w$ ?! `( I

9 o% J* q& n- E7 G: d& r( q8 ^8 F3.  Don Campbell has just returned from presenting our Canadian investment) [# m( w5 x+ M+ m2 P7 K
atmosphere (including Why Alberta - Why Now") to a group of major investors in8 L! A, S8 B  |  h
Dublin, Ireland, and the response was overwhelmingly positive.  In fact, after. J% U" [- M) u7 A' x0 R
Don presented the economic facts, many of these investors (who could invest! o( S' `3 ^4 M* E
anywhere in the world) have already booked their flights to here.  Once again
( R4 Y& f, k% D4 m6 K. P4 K1 @3 cproving that when the true numbers of our economy are presented (along with the
* P8 z- b9 j- _! lpolitical stability of our country), there is no place in the world that can9 q% L# O2 e7 k& Q6 d
beat it for long term investment.. w4 B: M+ U* U2 L( P! v) D0 g

0 c2 X9 z0 a& A$ z: |4.  Job creation continues to be strong (with a small lull in June); definitely) E3 e% B* J* \# L* `$ [
a sign of strong long-term fundamentals.  RBC has also been following the job
' d8 X! \/ D$ e/ h; G0 Icreation situation and here is what they are saying: (www.rbc.com/economics)
/ R  \* A9 f$ ^"After generating a substantial 96,700 jobs in May, the largest such gain since9 h+ Q2 Y5 Y2 O+ H& e  s. q9 r9 p0 g
January 2002, the economy lost a modest 4,600 jobs in June... : [& F' m! s1 h! C! ^- j

  \" I2 h8 d. [+ Z) v, b3 V2 EStrength in the Canadian economy contributed to a gain of 215,600 jobs in the/ p1 \$ W& z, ?  e
first half of 2006, a feat not matched since the second half of 2002.  With the
  t! E0 y7 Q) n3 |, W# U% ceconomy widely expected to grow at a more moderate pace in the second half of5 [! j( A% v. s- S8 x& }1 I
the year on the back of slowing trade activity, this impressive showing may not! p5 m% K  N) `9 s- I5 T( O0 Z) j/ R
repeat itself.  We expect that employment grew in July at a pace consistent with
, ^) E7 q1 Y$ V; ]its recent trend of 24,000 jobs a month. Assuming that the labour force grew at9 j  w8 F0 t9 G0 W! _
its trend rate, a gain of 24,000 jobs will lead to a national unemployment rate, B  ~7 H1 N0 D4 ?4 t$ I; T
of 6.1%."  Overall very good news.  Now the key is to ensure that the region in$ F+ E* P! d0 W0 F* {
which you are investing is continuing to generate jobs and increasing incomes.
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& @, m5 Z9 u( Q' u0 }+ h( h. MIn other words, it is a great time to be taking advantage of this strong
( t" N1 j* U. b/ @! f$ keconomy, avoiding 'excuses' and to especially not listen to the uninformed6 C3 p) ?; M7 {5 }$ @
'dream stealers.'  As long as you stick with your game plan, you continue to do
$ t# t; A% Y0 wyour due diligence, and you remove emotions from the equation, you will see the
" R- s+ q2 O. o9 uopportunities that are right in front of you, right here in Alberta.  Let the
) E# V; j. U* G) M'dream stealers' call you 'lucky' 5 years from now as your net worth has soared
+ P: b' |$ Q$ {* r: eand your financial freedom has surpassed even your wildest expectations.* o' v7 V9 E; w" b8 `& F4 D; Z
; `+ F: M5 b9 z8 Y: B

0 V- H! U% t& `- O) Q+ TCapital Gains Comparison.; h  \' y, M: T. c: w. a% b5 Z9 i

! j$ F! Z; [, \. R2 g* O; J* nKPMG has recently released a comparison of the true Top Federal and Provincial
) K' P$ p. \( M+ wMarginal Capital Gains Tax Rates per province.  It is very interesting to see
8 X: z/ G. v* m# q0 |+ ]how these will affect your exit strategy.  Here are the numbers:
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BC . . . . . . . .  21.9%
* r1 h' I0 `, [* R: K* ?, aAB . . . . . . . .  19.5%
/ w: T. {' N9 U7 m7 b  t4 O9 w6 S" ]SK . . . . . . . .  22.0%: a+ [& \# h1 Z1 z5 i
MB . . . . . . . .  23.2%
6 O$ A+ _3 M9 Z$ d# m" kON . . . . . . . .  23.2%
9 \& {7 G8 e  s) DQC . . . . . . . .  24.1%( \  K* m, c* _" u8 A
NB . . . . . . . .  23.4%8 u4 x' k* C  U; r9 y+ y
NS . . . . . . . .  24.1%/ i, D5 U/ N1 e+ j- t. G0 b
PE . . . . . . . .  23.7%
8 ^4 R/ s8 s- i( Q1 [6 mNF . . . . . . . .  24.3%* X5 b0 V# E! ?0 U: I* {+ P3 o# U3 p; s

. z+ s8 l- `4 {1 t8 [& V5 WLower capital gains tax increases investment and stimulates the long term
8 |' ?. R: `8 d$ m6 l2 \' w5 J/ beconomy of the province.  It also allows real estate investors to keep more of
/ c9 g" l5 ~% f) l. Htheir profits at exit time.  Always a good number to pay attention to.
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Overall, by staying focused for the next short period of time, you have the4 v# ?! u8 [  ?+ _9 R, O) E  E% w3 {
opportunity to create financial freedom of which others can only dream.  Of1 m3 I/ s6 w! f+ w
course, the key word is focus.  And with an August line-up of 'Members Only'
: u  b2 M' I, a1 F% }events like this, you can't help to become a real estate investment champion; q) ^, D4 E  R, e
when you take action as a full REIN Member.
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Focus on the fundamentals, keep emotions out of your decisions, and enjoy the
9 M+ E" v- @( O/ k, y1 Oresults in just a few short years.
理袁律师事务所
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发表于 2006-8-25 09:26 | 显示全部楼层
原帖由 屯民 于 2006-8-25 08:35 发表
2 J5 W* w1 J. H' T0 T/ L) w" _NEW HOUSING PRICE INDEX...6 e8 C- x  o* |* a
" \$ @9 x* t% c3 q# y2 j# S) ?& \1 O
8 V# Q! o# S: e/ q9 V5 q
The New Housing Price Index, has just been released and it provides some very
; _* x2 J2 _8 P7 r6 V$ Einteresting insights, not only into where the market has moved, but where it9 Z8 Z0 Z& ~! n
will be  ...

9 w( L1 @/ F& u
/ _! z$ p, B3 T5 `, w谢谢分享,你买了他们的membership吗?可以给我多发点文章吗?如果值得我也想加入。
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 楼主| 发表于 2006-8-25 10:45 | 显示全部楼层
Yes, I am member.  Below is an old one but I think it is very good. # Y# z1 o, E. T: ]
8 T/ N2 [4 u: O: I. V
http://www.albertarein.com/insid ... le&articleid=498 Y/ `+ L0 B7 ^* I+ F7 v
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You can also go to their web site to get more info. Here is the link.
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http://www.albertarein.com/index.asp
鲜花(86) 鸡蛋(3)
发表于 2006-8-25 11:17 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
嘿,炒访团来了哈!
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 楼主| 发表于 2006-8-25 11:27 | 显示全部楼层
You are one of the biggest 炒家 I knew.
鲜花(437) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2006-8-25 12:00 | 显示全部楼层
很象国内的股评.
鲜花(150) 鸡蛋(3)
发表于 2006-8-25 18:21 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
看吧,每个月才3000人,一年人口才增加4万人,仅仅占全市总人口的4%,房子半年涨了50%,这就是我说的房价水分(虚涨)。所以,降价是谁也挡不住的。# ^! V9 H' r& ]2 \# J" Q  C

' U5 I6 q2 _% V# \4 f$ ^  y***醉酒认为,合理房价上涨=4%/年(人口)+8%/年(自然增长)+10%(经济前景)=22%/年就够多了。所以炒作因素引起增长 = 45%-22% = 23%,所以,降价空间很大,等等吧****
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原帖由 屯民 于 2006-8-25 08:35 发表
$ i  b1 I+ d" }1 p) _NEW HOUSING PRICE INDEX...4 a  N) i) O! W: T

, g  T) {" V: v+ H! D  w5 O; \* [  T/ R8 N; H" L
With close to 3,000 net new people into3 K$ j( i* f  V$ `
the city every month, the property market just can't keep up.  That is why we4 `9 T% N1 c4 W) i$ ?
saw the New Housing Price Index ...

3 {/ Q0 _- o  r[ 本帖最后由 醉酒当歌 于 2006-8-25 18:44 编辑 ]
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