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Canada's housing market both vigorous and stable 7 b/ g! y( ~" q# }$ V
+ J: b" T' t2 O% r
- Country's market poised to show growth throughout 2006 -
* n) D/ t, j+ B4 R+ H' Q8 a
. j& U+ R _/ a+ H5 B3 C# r8 m TORONTO, Sept. 28 /CNW/ - For most of Canada, the housing market
X$ Z2 d' v) a- {exhibited moderate price increases and stable unit sales during the third
/ f# I, r2 e* m' }% m( Uquarter. Wide regional variances continued to be the dominant characteristic
9 X4 ]) Q; L' O& G+ R# y( w5 }2 Vin the market, exemplified by frenzied levels of activity and double digit, L' q/ g0 I9 i3 O/ U
price gains observed in the energy and commodity rich Western provinces, and x+ m' v) u, U. c# F* B# Z( t
more reasonable sales volumes and moderate price appreciation in Ontario,
2 d+ B9 e# b- v( h! T7 zQuebec and Atlantic Canada, according to a report released today by Royal' U' m( n C9 o( [- k
LePage Real Estate Services.8 X' _" f2 x5 S: g3 n8 H
' a$ O: S- |% W2 D; R6 q
Nationally, market trends established through the first three quarters
+ d2 Y1 W% n7 R" `1 M5 `* qare forecast to continue for the remainder of the year. Robust economic5 J/ ] t3 B- g% R
conditions, low unemployment rates, modestly growing salaries and wages, and
/ D+ Y% Q8 J1 D4 I. M: [& psound consumer confidence contributed to the overall strength of the
% w% g7 [/ B5 J7 Z! @/ Gresidential real estate sector.
( ?3 `( M/ X6 J6 e) ?9 ~8 w/ w1 x# ~, _
Of the housing types surveyed, the highest average price appreciation) u# `, i* \1 ]; g" u" ?% @
occurred in detached bungalows, which rose to $300,365 (+16.3%)/ ?& J+ `/ K2 t, U0 |% V; Z
year-over-year, followed by standard condominiums, which rose to $211,5621 V& `: x! U0 G* t. j
(+14.2%), and standard two-storey properties, which increased to $365,380
! c2 X# ~2 c2 W( f. y- g(+13.2%).
( D, ~8 P4 h! V0 O- _% k+ D3 n9 v2 d# m8 I/ f2 p
"Canada's sturdy housing market continued to demonstrate steady growth4 y# ?) |% O% a! w
during the third quarter. For all but the west, we have moved on from the/ K/ G, p* o ^# M4 e
frenzied expansion that characterized the first half of this decade, and are: m2 w# |7 z: _. s T t/ R% j
poised to show continued growth at a more moderate pace," said Phil Soper,2 C8 O) S, G' |/ m
president and chief executive officer, Royal LePage Real Estate Services.
& f+ U' g, ^. r& z9 h4 s5 |% b"Gone is the sellers' market that we have lived with for some years. We9 Q8 K; j; j9 m% N5 J d; {6 a1 g
welcome the more reliable conditions that are characteristic of a healthy4 {; D! v& d- D
balanced market."
" J5 M& j2 s- ~0 G9 T% Q3 s
. w" M, E+ P& O- M4 X5 n; Z0 D Despite the double-digit rise in average national house prices,
' g1 R7 R( t" u% z3 R; u l1 {( x/ {considerable regional variances were exhibited again this quarter. The shift) L& r _. y5 k5 P I
to balanced market conditions, which began in late 2005, has continued/ ?( h3 A0 Y- X( B& d! g
throughout most of the Central and Eastern regions of the country. In the core
* E( c$ t. [9 g3 Aenergy producing western provinces, the combination of very high in-migration,
* L0 l+ A2 l; D+ @0 x+ l. rmanageable affordability, and a shortage of inventory has driven record
9 _. H- U. m/ Z8 B# Ebreaking price appreciations.: M- L# v2 i* Q1 n& b9 O! q
9 _) X! L3 `: `& {1 `4 T Echoing the second quarter and supported by Alberta's rapidly expanding: P8 [4 x$ b' x; w) Z
economy, Calgary and Edmonton led the charge of Canadian cities with the! I7 M0 i8 T4 k
largest house price appreciation in all housing types surveyed.: j1 C/ d- Z+ ]/ Y% t
0 y1 D: a+ }* P, c
In Ottawa and Toronto, growth remained steady, supported by solid
. x5 I: w8 U! eeconomic fundamentals, an increase in available inventory and strong consumer5 \1 r0 y1 \6 H& @
confidence. While the pace of price appreciation in Ontario leveled off
7 B& F1 A: K: `3 Zslightly, the province's real estate market remains poised for modest growth.' I, s8 z% R: O1 q
In Atlantic Canada, new housing and condominium construction offered buyers
/ _* E( M- B: h" _6 B* z$ F9 Lgreater selection at more competitive prices, resulting in a slower rate of5 }! f$ [/ O5 W6 q
price appreciation when compared with 2005.$ T; ]( N8 \* b: [. m
7 Y, Q+ S1 N$ E. `3 t! X8 x While the pace of growth in Canada has slowed, the domestic housing# y* o" W% a) Z
market is expected to outperform the American market. The economic and
, I7 Z5 j4 I; w% T. zfinancial fundamentals driving the residential real estate sector in Canada% W2 I; f3 m5 p
are markedly different than those found in the United States.& d* [$ _3 A* U
" `6 \- X1 N& \' D9 ~. w& D Added Soper: "Canada's housing market is likely to outperform the) f8 f4 S2 `; t1 |4 W
American market through 2007. A number of factors are working in Canada's
+ R& P" J: r+ f* i! X+ S4 n) O4 V+ \favour, including healthy personal and governmental debt levels, the d# S3 V8 {; O# Y
relatively modest rise in interest rates in our country, and general0 o7 ~/ C' N6 o- C4 E
affordability in our major cities. In addition, Americans are now seeing the- D. d% P1 K/ p$ v
downside of a tax system that encourages maximum homeowner leverage, and
$ x& Z( d6 g9 V9 A4 [! C. U: ^aggressive financial products such as zero- and negative-amortization
/ z, W# ?" u- M7 H' q! Pmortgages that work only in a high price growth environment.") Q, U; X% L0 L" |- r; b
8 I0 s3 Y- f+ M( i! }' J; t, I1 W
<<
! B9 u* t: g- y& N7 G REGIONAL SUMMARIES* t& m% f V, o$ o W. ]; `6 I
>>3 p7 v! Y+ I+ B; f( H! Z
6 s! t+ p c7 X. V0 n Balanced conditions continued to characterize the housing market in
6 C' q2 V% ?, }6 c$ [Halifax, as significantly higher inventory levels helped to moderate the rate8 k0 j0 f5 s6 G0 t1 B- E9 w
of price appreciation. Buyers were increasingly choosy, taking more time
/ y4 c* r8 V1 p- n6 j( ilooking for newer, low-maintenance properties that were not in need of% o) g5 u- t3 F# `. p, S
renovations.7 A3 d6 q& Z7 `; m
* i- W4 M) T: v, r& i
The housing market in Moncton remained healthy and strong as a slight
# s, m$ ]' h' ^$ Wincrease in inventory helped to moderate the rate of price appreciation7 p. t! D6 m6 r0 j/ t' `1 \
compared to the same period in 2005. Activity was brisk throughout August and% c4 T0 C Z6 W2 H
September and is expected to remain this way through the fourth quarter.
( e* j& Q$ r) t& V+ K3 k3 o4 B+ x+ R& L' s6 Q3 Y& M3 j8 f: i
The housing market in Saint John underwent its traditional summer
$ F {% F% b) Z' f3 }slowdown in the third quarter, with activity picking up towards the end of the- e2 H( ?1 t% r/ k0 f% V
quarter. The local economy continued to thrive, as construction on a new! P( g( u9 g3 l3 O3 X1 W" V' I
600,000 square-foot shopping area has begun, bringing several new box stores
! p- `+ ^7 T7 i/ O' |to the area. Buyers have begun seeking less expensive fixtures for their homes2 F0 i; H0 d5 \$ K
and are instead opting for more affordable housing options.3 x% k2 i" I- m) Y$ s/ Y- }3 t! n3 q
2 R2 t4 w6 M/ l! B In Charlottetown, the housing market started to move towards balanced
! P# T$ l/ [/ I; s7 v7 u2 `conditions, as some sellers had to begin to lower the asking prices on their
7 w8 K1 y! U% i! L) chomes to make them more competitive. Activity from out-of-town and US buyers3 r" W" B/ o% X
was down slightly compared to 2005, likely attributable to the strong Canadian* h7 c y; e4 `
dollar. Inventory levels began to creep up in the third quarter, providing
* I9 t. _. c% Z7 Bbuyers with more options when looking for a home. N+ B" |1 V& ~- C7 X+ _
9 x- I# X0 @& v" I" R
Activity in St. John's slowed slightly in the third quarter, particularly
+ ^/ V3 w5 Z3 @2 u. t. p, Hamong higher-priced properties, where there was a slight over-supply of homes
. `0 j/ I7 i8 `! ^6 spriced over $200,000. Listing periods have increased when compared with 2005,
: d* E2 [. ~# R4 J$ `; Qas some of the pent-up demand that had characterized the market over the last
+ I- f+ \ c% T7 {few years has been satisfied, resulting in more normal, balanced conditions.
: W' J0 Q; v" x7 Q* @
3 F8 i% ^: l) r! \" Z, F; z Montreal's housing market recorded modest increases in average house& @) `' K% Z1 ~# ~2 o. {* {- _' O ]
prices, due to a slight seasonal slowdown in the third quarter as inventory! w$ x: Y( h( r. P
levels rose. Part of this can be attributed to the fact that many renting
0 M! j6 g5 `. s5 c- \first-time buyers were motivated to close on the purchase of a home by July 1,9 |: H1 H/ ]. U$ t
when rental leases expire in Quebec. Once this date has passed some of the K7 q9 P2 H; C# E
pressure is taken off the market, allowing buyers to visit more homes before' m; e1 h, c) K* Z" t1 _7 C
making a purchase.
" Z" u E- ~0 K7 ~ W
7 w* o6 T- n+ D5 O9 e9 r3 p Ottawa held its position as one of the country's most stable housing+ Z# U' D1 `: O6 C! u {
markets in the third quarter, reinforced by a vibrant local economy and strong7 I3 V& f r0 z% ~
confidence, resulting in modest increases in average house prices. The city& Y+ @$ @2 X1 M! a5 X) \
centre remained a bright spot in Ottawa, with homes in this area attracting m1 T7 J3 h$ `+ ^4 A/ @8 _
attention due to their convenient location and proximity to downtown
! D6 r5 [! V4 m o# Xamenities.
6 X: l, N* |& n* ^& k4 G& H3 N# k* R3 m5 I
The housing market in Toronto sustained healthy activity levels% [, l. X: w& d5 [
throughout the third quarter, as a strong economy helped to maintain demand
G, R& @ Z' U9 Yacross the city, causing average house prices to rise moderately. Toronto has* b# V- E( l' E( \! b* I
continued to experience modest growth in average house prices, and has been
- Q4 S5 z9 C) }* J, _driven primarily by purchasers who are buying homes as their principle
. r& p) W* I$ y6 ]6 j# I0 Dresidence, rather than for investment.
: v1 Y: X5 M/ g- x% Y0 C0 W
4 ~; S' }( @& M The vibrant Winnipeg housing market continued to show its strength as x2 b, H/ h8 G6 t/ ~1 C/ R' u
house prices rose during the third quarter. The booming local economy resulted* ?. o2 Q* W9 r. w
in a historically low unemployment rate, helping to bolster consumer
2 g. c5 Z- b l+ n5 Vconfidence and Winnipeg's ranking as the city with the lowest capitalization
; h7 x- Y' Y# q/ l) Orate among the country's larger cities - helped to encourage buyers to enter
- d. I i7 O+ N" ~2 ?the market.
, S" \9 P% y. C7 X. \
- \; C: a: m) w! E- R6 s In Regina, the market experienced a slight seasonal slowdown through
( {! A O7 I \6 ?" m% g' A# ~8 v, }July, as there were fewer purchasers in the market due to summer vacations. In, d/ N0 s( _ `. K1 ^$ w, D
August, activity resumed to the busy pace previously seen in the spring
g0 J A9 _ t$ [months, as the influx of purchasers made it more difficult to find a home due- H2 K4 Q- a* ]0 {& z2 v. s c
to the shortage of available inventory.% D! y. g! A5 w" C
& r6 N1 H* F* Q' ]2 ~6 p
Activity in Saskatoon remained brisk as the market maintained its0 o4 Q8 Y/ z b# m2 [ u# X
momentum from the busy spring sales period. The economy in Saskatoon remains- z {% t, U* ~5 J; n& m
vibrant, as employment opportunities are abundant with many businesses4 Z% B# Y4 ]: p: r2 \% @
struggling to make hires and having to recruit outside the province.$ e9 B8 |, @, K& V; v
% L$ {% @8 b9 ^4 E: d
Calgary's housing market recorded blazing average house price increases! q$ e J% j6 H+ a
in the third quarter, in all surveyed categories. The burgeoning economy, low
" ]+ X$ ?/ c/ e* V8 V0 J/ Iunemployment rates and low inventory levels remained the leading factors that
9 S6 J! V9 G" epressured Calgary's house prices upwards. However, regardless of the soaring$ X7 T+ \' ]3 b/ V
prices that characterized the market - even during the typically slower summer& F* k" Q2 ^! I
season - it is expected that activity will become slightly more balanced, as: b: p2 a2 `8 E; i
buyers are becoming more reluctant to participate in the frenetic activity.0 u" G7 }% D0 Y8 ]- P) Z- N h
1 l4 [# ^) p. }8 W. n
Edmonton's booming local economy continued to thrive in the third quarter
( P U1 g$ R: X# g+ Bas activity in the oil sands north of the city continued to flourish. Edmonton# n H4 ?: i& X" t' N
remained the hub of activity for those coming to work in the oil industry,
: e3 m" h; h, _6 Rmaintaining tight inventory levels across the city, resulting in prices
6 h& H" Q t" ^increasing at record levels. However, as inventory levels continued to improve" h5 {: N) R2 \9 ]+ ~# _
in the third quarter the rate of price appreciation should moderate slightly
; n4 v4 R; l7 i/ J: ?; Ytowards the end of 2006.
( m2 P" v- b# S) Y9 E4 W; R3 k# R( b
While Vancouver has seen a slight reprieve from the severe shortage of8 \# |1 z# W" K, ~' T2 b
inventory that had previously characterized the market, supply is still unable
. Q3 T* q4 L6 ato meet demand, driving house prices upwards. Vancouver has a very diverse
% P1 u) O' ^2 o8 `8 [1 Wgroup of active buyers - from first-time home buyers to baby-boomers to
1 Q# Q, X# d( @. hforeign investors - all of whom fuel the demand for houses, placing added
c: [0 i9 b, I; d# Spressure on tight inventory levels.; d, }& F; g% N0 s. ~
: u4 B6 F4 F% k1 U2 E! o9 Z Victoria's market is vibrant and supported by strong economic
$ M; [' L3 q/ ~0 {$ Vfundamentals, fuelled by a booming tech sector and a migration of young people
- S0 r. s* v2 H7 Pinto the city that has continued to support the area's house price increases;9 y) e% S1 B: g3 m- O+ Y" D
while increased inventory levels have afforded buyers more time when searching
8 E2 F6 X1 r. @4 ufor a home, helping to normalize the market's pace.( h! L: r# j% }5 A
9 O) n; R* L* y+ k' ?4 B <<- X- w0 V5 _ I9 T
Survey of Canadian Average House Prices in the Third Quarter 2006 _7 E* Y' I* D
5 p$ p2 f1 y- i0 u/ \& t6 L$ C! q" Z -------------------------------------------------------------------------& i' R% @( q) ~; S) H' l
Detached Bungalows Standard Two Storey
8 t- L0 d( F. M$ I1 E) B -------------------------------------------------------------------------
$ {6 d" s8 d3 w' x& i 2006 Q3 2005 Q3 Bungalow 2006 Q3 2005 Q37 w S% L8 ~! e8 p! F/ G
Market Average Average % Change Average Average& Y* j; Z, F' g1 e4 J2 m
-------------------------------------------------------------------------8 C9 _6 O1 O/ b F& U6 `
Halifax 186,333 173,333 7.5% 198,667 199,000& E5 [9 j/ R s, \3 ~
-------------------------------------------------------------------------7 a* H8 [( w/ |* j5 Z8 M: I4 D
Charlottetown 145,000 141,000 2.8% 175,000 170,000( q1 S6 O" E; ?+ M- V; x
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
^+ _* C5 `4 }$ ? Moncton 135,000 127,000 6.3% 129,000 123,000; {5 ^1 t ~5 w: T. O. Y$ O' S3 {
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
' A. V/ {1 U$ W# R Saint John 141,200 142,900 -1.2% - -5 ?( [9 V9 |( c }, P# @: o$ [( t
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
- ^4 m6 |1 c( P9 q3 j1 c% D( J St. John's 143,667 142,667 0.7% 200,667 202,3330 j6 g5 _. l0 _, H+ a0 W# G
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
6 o O+ }; l) W% s* J* W Atlantic 150,240 145,380 3.3% 175,833 173,583
" J5 ], u) M+ p -------------------------------------------------------------------------
' w" c( w1 b- u4 E% H Montreal 213,691 203,500 5.0% 321,141 316,185& Y# N' F; @8 H+ A Q
-------------------------------------------------------------------------8 d8 Z+ W; C' }* Y* m# I$ B$ E4 y, _/ x
Ottawa 290,083 278,417 4.2% 285,667 273,2504 n( ^5 W, G" c5 b; J) M0 ?" S
-------------------------------------------------------------------------0 O$ [0 h$ w; g: _9 Y+ q& e, A
Toronto 373,368 355,882 4.9% 481,523 474,766
# p6 U% u+ h4 ` -------------------------------------------------------------------------' Y' V+ H' W3 f( U+ O: K& T6 K
Winnipeg 181,579 159,860 13.6% 202,337 180,7072 q" k4 W! M6 r% i% K) X) I
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
& F4 }. ~5 e% m! f+ ^& N Saskatchewan 170,667 156,083 9.3% 182,600 166,500/ A2 [& y, _- T5 `
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
6 L( K7 }; y2 C O3 k% f! A* f Calgary 395,067 252,411 56.5% 405,778 264,389' ?) D) I; ~7 r3 |7 Y0 d+ }
-------------------------------------------------------------------------* [# A7 f6 z7 ]7 b d% `# L$ o1 y2 B
Edmonton 286,857 194,857 47.2% 316,429 206,714
% O# H* f# ~: _2 d( H; D5 J -------------------------------------------------------------------------4 ^/ \- }$ H1 [' M# O' w3 D0 k* u
Vancouver 704,250 601,000 17.2% 794,000 697,500
' [) [- e D6 B; L/ c. d L -------------------------------------------------------------------------! e+ s9 j f! z" ?1 c8 ^
Victoria 375,000 348,000 7.8% 403,000 391,000% g8 L0 Z/ g8 k% u5 `3 J
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
$ Q+ [ a1 V5 j' ^, D National 300,365 258,202 16.3% 365,380 322,860
/ j% u! W4 B0 w8 L/ p) z' P% _ [ -------------------------------------------------------------------------
' ^# k% G9 `$ h+ ?/ I# B3 _& [5 D2 T6 D1 t+ E
-------------------------------------------------------------5 A; f: G& p8 M: o
Standard Condominium
- O4 E6 L2 E* p x ]$ s' V/ u -------------------------------------------------------------- |# O. ?! b' x; d
2-Storey 2006 Q3 2005 Q3 Condo
Q. i }. Q% k' `; M+ [ Market % Change Average Average % Change
- u' q: ?5 I, i: X6 } -------------------------------------------------------------
: O, m+ K7 C: O Halifax -0.2% 142,000 103,000 37.9%
9 |* _! `6 H# \* j( m -------------------------------------------------------------& @; `5 R' P3 {5 f0 w5 n* k
Charlottetown 2.9% 98,000 98,000 0.0%: W T, h1 d$ b+ f
-------------------------------------------------------------, e* R- @- _1 Z# T8 @% [
Moncton 4.9% - - N/A7 j' S7 ~' G9 e7 {7 V
-------------------------------------------------------------: E$ _( E' }5 g" L
Saint John N/A - - N/A
( E6 c. n F& X; q -------------------------------------------------------------
: ]4 m9 A. h0 o% l9 O1 @ St. John's -0.8% 146,333 145,667 0.5%9 X" v+ }) H7 i; G
------------------------------------------------------------- a8 X4 C! }* f9 Y4 i+ p% f0 U7 V
Atlantic 1.3% 128,778 115,556 11.4%
( ?9 f9 n, p) K* B8 d. }" I1 b ------------------------------------------------------------- T8 c% B2 _0 O4 v7 |/ A8 e
Montreal 1.6% 193,190 188,016 2.8%* A8 ^1 i# O0 ~+ U
-------------------------------------------------------------' A8 A* ^! F6 _, Q8 \( |' L
Ottawa 4.5% 181,083 172,250 5.1%1 \' T1 L+ p4 d! R0 z
-------------------------------------------------------------. K" j0 A2 q+ R3 F7 ~+ I
Toronto 1.4% 252,088 242,918 3.8%) b' R* b3 W! a+ b d0 r2 e
-------------------------------------------------------------
% D+ y/ t7 D' B3 {# R Winnipeg 12.0% 105,648 96,008 10.0%1 N" A) ]0 ?" g
-------------------------------------------------------------) y7 a4 a$ P3 Y0 F1 @/ v
Saskatchewan 9.7% 106,250 101,000 5.2%, `: c0 F( k& [$ p; o) ^6 p" T, x$ i) |
-------------------------------------------------------------& A1 s$ }" n7 C# ]; s4 z
Calgary 53.5% 245,844 153,867 59.8%
7 F5 a7 B0 R3 @ -------------------------------------------------------------' s& n/ v8 o- g3 v! z+ ^
Edmonton 53.1% 200,433 131,500 52.4%
5 A" m: d6 \& ]4 f1 t -------------------------------------------------------------
U4 r5 ]$ H) T+ _7 k$ ?& Q: g7 M Vancouver 13.8% 366,250 323,250 13.3%
0 _0 D& _% H4 s* v+ v8 H8 ^! T1 n0 A -------------------------------------------------------------
7 \. R0 J! K2 G2 x1 Q6 [/ l4 f Victoria 3.1% 229,000 220,000 4.1%
( U9 j! R; ]) [ I/ b ------------------------------------------------------------- N. f6 \8 q4 w/ R
National 13.2% 211,562 185,296 14.2%* s9 g1 b/ k8 Y: z3 ]+ I5 ~& W
-------------------------------------------------------------/ x$ e) x- z: J3 F
>>, @& m; D. i9 ?$ [, J0 b' W2 y( Q
- B4 A: v! d1 h
Average house prices are based on an average of all sub-markets examined4 b* |+ Q' ]: \# X
in the area, except for the smaller markets of Charlottetown, Moncton, Saint1 X2 q" X6 M3 N' {1 Z4 L2 s( g
John and Victoria.
5 k6 L3 d- r- d0 {9 p) O6 y, t# f8 {/ _
The Royal LePage Survey of Canadian House Prices is the largest, most
$ |0 \4 ?; W, Ocomprehensive study of its kind in Canada, with information on seven types of# j* E+ k3 g4 Y' W3 J+ c
housing in over 250 neighbourhoods from coast to coast. This release
0 x4 [2 E! x8 L* @5 z$ Z+ `1 Oreferences an abbreviated version of the survey, which highlights house price
0 D+ \. p& ^# R {5 O' Vtrends for the three most common types of housing in Canada in 80 communities! [ |' V0 c% d# I! b1 d
across the country. A complete database of past and present surveys is- k! t7 z! F( o! E2 P/ \1 X& y3 w
available on the Royal LePage Web site at www.royallepage.ca, and current7 n% m8 Z0 R( L2 n% d
figures will be updated following the end of the third quarter. A printable
% N7 d% t+ m* ^, e4 C, Cversion of the third quarter 2006 survey will be available online on
( V9 U4 m) j6 n4 o" lNovember 15, 2006.
3 w/ i$ m+ s+ p1 O: v" K$ h3 V Housing values in the Royal LePage Survey are Royal LePage opinions of
4 B4 V. W+ n) c% ^8 v7 Pfair market value in each location, based on local data and market knowledge2 u& ]. d% I5 R' N' q. _
provided by Royal LePage residential real estate experts. Historical data is2 w3 Q0 P2 Z7 p. {9 p
available for some areas back to the early 1970s. |
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