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Oil Gains a Second Day on U.S. Demand Rise, Heating Fuel Fall
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By Gavin Evans
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Oct. 13 (Bloomberg) -- Crude oil rose a second day in New York after a report showed U.S. fuel demand jumped 3.5 percent last week and heating fuel supplies fell more than expected.
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' R' ?% T# ^7 h! R; EOil rebounded from near a nine-month low yesterday after an Energy Department report showed U.S. fuel demand rose for the first time in seven weeks. Distillates stockpiles, including heating oil and diesel, fell 1.5 million barrels, 12-times the decline forecast in a Bloomberg News survey of analysts.
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``I think we're close to the bottom,'' said Chris Mennis, owner of oil broker New Wave Energy in Aptos, California. ``The demand is very good for distillate and it's better than last year for gasoline. The seasonal decline was about what it should have been'' and the world economy remains strong, he said. ( P8 j4 w2 R1 i5 p
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Crude oil for November delivery rose as much as 52 cents, or 0.9 percent, to $58.38 a barrel in after-hours electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. It was at $58.26 at 8:24 a.m. in Singapore. 8 P0 b, {# l b& ^1 l% e& z% O
( w( E7 o4 T+ S$ LThe contract rose 27 cents, or 0.5 percent, to $57.86 a barrel, yesterday, its first gain in three days. Futures touched $57.22, the lowest since Dec. 19 before the department's report.
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``The surprising heating oil number has given the market a boost,'' Kyle Cooper, director of research at IAF Advisors in Houston, said yesterday. ``We are still not in a bull market because supplies remain ample.''
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) O" |+ P P4 ^The decline in distillate stockpiles left them holding 149.9 million barrels of fuel, 18 percent more than the five-year average for the period, the department said.
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+ C# L. F* q0 y. A; xWinter Fuel
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Distillate stockpiles and production dropped as refiners cut output for a third week as they carried out pre-winter maintenance. World oil demand peaks in the fourth-quarter when refiners make heating fuel for the northern hemisphere winter.
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U.S. refiners used 89.2 percent of the plant capacity, last week, less than forecast and the lowest in five months.
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``This scare will prove to be very short-lived,'' said Antonio Szabo, chief executive officer of consultant Stone Bond Technologies. ``I'm willing to bet that as early as next week, refineries will start making more heating oil.'' 4 q+ ^! C; c" \3 X0 w# I7 g6 m
9 S$ z. F0 i1 t' ZOil inventories in the U.S., the world's biggest consumer, jumped 2.41 million barrels to 330.5 million last week, 14 percent more than the five-year average. An increase of 1.5 million barrels was expected, according to the analyst survey. % Z. N1 @! D% @, k/ l$ t& K; h
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Stockpiles in the industrialized countries of the Organization of Economic Cooperation & Development represent about 55 days of supply, the International Energy Agency said in a monthly report on Oct. 11. ; Q' f+ g5 p% s+ |
8 V: d1 |& `" gPrice Slide . Y( }; a% _7 F7 y5 f6 S
" f0 O( e5 o& i- I9 r& F/ e& A4 t$ S``We're still heading to $55,'' Ric Navy, a broker at BNP Paribas SA in New York, said yesterday. ``The market has been hit with a huge dose of reality in the last month. Crude, distillate and gasoline inventories combined are more than 70 million barrels higher than last year.''
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Oil futures have slipped more than $20 a barrel from the record of $78.40 reached on July 14. Prices fell as Middle East tensions eased, U.S. gasoline demand slowed with the end of summer vacations, and fuel stockpiles rose. & ^0 x0 {* s% ?" ~: d+ M Y
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The slide in prices prompted the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries to seek a voluntary 1 million-barrel a day output cut from its members. OPEC, which produces about 40 percent of the world's oil, pumped about 29.7 million barrels a day last month, according to a Bloomberg survey.
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There is ``no unity'' within OPEC for a cut and the group is unlikely to act before futures prices reach $55 a barrel, Stone Bond's Szabo said.
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: n8 _- v5 F. s/ `3 P V``There is not a serious over-supply in the market.''
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4 Z* M1 x/ r) [6 wWhile the fundamentals for oil are still bearish, some investors are buying now to avoid the risk being caught out when the market turns, New Wave's Mennis said.
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# D% W4 f' @; v0 @7 U``The bottom is not going to be $50,'' he said. ``If you buy it now you risk maybe five bucks. But that's better than buying it at $70.'' |
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发表于 2006-10-12 19:12
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