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3 z9 d2 s' D& K. V* e) c2 i Thu January 11, 2007 www.edmontonsun.com8 B+ B. B3 O0 K& @
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0 v" x" W. a) l: ?Thu, January 11, 2007! [4 _* T! ?' V7 H7 s
; |; R# ]$ ?8 T! D: @2 Z% PPrice is still rightEdmonton Real Estate Board president expects a 15% climb in 2007
8 L4 P' B+ `6 s/ ^By NEIL WAUGH, EDMONTON SUN7 v" Q5 Y, z5 X( ^
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7 _* q/ Z. K: @! j3 CThey're changing the guard down at the Edmonton real estate palace. % P# V6 P3 U: j$ n0 t- [$ i) G
, J: A1 x# e. g' pMadeline Sarafinchan is out. Carolyn Pratt is taking over the Edmonton Real Estate Board president's gavel - the kind of blunt instrument that some realtors, I suspect, would like to use on ComFree Edmonton upstart Travis Holowach. More on that later. / c3 s9 l$ M' s+ L
; z! Z7 U+ f! P3 q9 P9 d' RBut first, the EREB president's bold predictions and fearless forecasts.
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h& l& M; m$ V. d" @; c9 tDon't expect a repeat of last year's housing boom where condo and single family dwelling prices spiked an incredible 52%. Pratt is now calling for a more modest increase of 15%.
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; e+ f% d7 t( i! m"We feel the increase will come because there will be continued demand, consumer confidence, a very robust economy and low interest rates," Pratt whooped at the EREB's New Year's kick-off conference at the Westin. "All the factors are there for another terrific year."
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& w# e m: _: w& p/ ]She predicted that the total number of residential sales isn't expected to increase in 2007 - despite thousands of pot-of-gold seekers still flocking to the capital region from across the country as Ontario continues to sputter. 6 Q3 U+ P9 Q- K* [/ v# x& P0 F7 G
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"There just won't be enough houses to sell," she sighed. " V9 W$ N3 i+ |- u, ~3 \
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Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation senior analyst Richard Goatcher was also talking a good-news-bad-news scenario at the board meeting. , ~/ r: c: u7 [# E
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"The big issue is, are we going to see continued in-migration into the city with the volumes we had last year?" Goatcher said. His expectation is "somewhat less." ! L& W5 [" U% A( b1 R: u5 d
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Still, total new-house starts will be "fairly similar" to last year's pace. 2006 turned out to be a record year. So was 2005. But Goatcher is predicting a 5% decrease in house starts.
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1 ]" V) S3 c* m4 @( ]8 S, K( I) t"A lot of it is due to capacity issues," he said. Developers are running out of serviced lots in some areas. Some homebuilders "got a little overstretched" during last year's house-building frenzy. 2 N4 ~9 E G$ S4 a
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"There are too many shortages in the system," he shrugged. " r: J) t; S, i' K" k4 s0 z7 i# [
6 ? ]0 | y9 O4 N- L( O"But it's still going to be very, very strong," he quickly added, with the average new-home selling price ramping up by 20%.
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- c" Q( S5 h' y6 ^/ zHe also doesn't see a repeat of the 2006 price boom in the resale market, which he described as "unsustainable."
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Expect a more gentle 10% increase - mainly because many potential buyers are now being priced out of the market - even with zero down payment and 40-year mortgages.
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B8 e$ ~' _# m# |1 `8 Y: }Over at ComFree Edmonton, president Travis Holowach was also celebrating what he described as a "steaming red hot" real estate market, and another "record-setting" year for his commission-free real estate service. , e) D7 X7 E! ] @0 I, H# |
m* H: f- d0 iHis 2006 wind-up report shows 4,375 total sales and 5,721 new listings, up 74% from 2005 - clearly sucking up a lot of the inventory that would otherwise have gone to an EREB realtor.
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"Our growing presence in the marketplace is having a strong impact on the competition," Holowach winked. ( M }# s, g* B/ Q! d M- J) R
9 D5 I) x/ g0 \' t8 h cSo strong that the Alberta Real Estate Association launched a complaint with Alberta Government Services claiming ComFree was bending the truth about its market share.
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2 K% D; I3 M K- @Yesterday ComFree was still claiming 30% share of the residential market. And "commissions saved" of $82 million from his sell-it-yourself operation. Which, of course, is what the battle is really all about.
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"We do 95% of the sales in the real estate market," Pratt countered.
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Let the good times roll.
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3 o$ ^4 m5 D, i7 b& d2 xPrevious story: Bottom Line
. s6 x/ f& U& ~8 eNext story: Building permits hit record) }1 M* P. h; m
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