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' y3 ]# U6 Y- f1 O Thu January 11, 2007 www.edmontonsun.com
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, U& T% J% n3 l. J2 Y+ N0 IThu, January 11, 2007" n" E0 |. T$ T: d6 |# ]2 s
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Price is still rightEdmonton Real Estate Board president expects a 15% climb in 2007
. Q8 v1 m; y! y' k9 hBy NEIL WAUGH, EDMONTON SUN% q9 F7 z' X; E: a7 z2 y5 X9 T' U- n
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2 t6 A* Q. Z1 m. PThey're changing the guard down at the Edmonton real estate palace. ( p- M. O0 d: n6 W; t
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Madeline Sarafinchan is out. Carolyn Pratt is taking over the Edmonton Real Estate Board president's gavel - the kind of blunt instrument that some realtors, I suspect, would like to use on ComFree Edmonton upstart Travis Holowach. More on that later. ' |) p- E# K* M) x9 ]4 N
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But first, the EREB president's bold predictions and fearless forecasts. ( i# G4 t4 y3 A: t0 a* c8 b) N4 W
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Don't expect a repeat of last year's housing boom where condo and single family dwelling prices spiked an incredible 52%. Pratt is now calling for a more modest increase of 15%.
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'CONTINUED DEMAND'
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"We feel the increase will come because there will be continued demand, consumer confidence, a very robust economy and low interest rates," Pratt whooped at the EREB's New Year's kick-off conference at the Westin. "All the factors are there for another terrific year." + f# a* v. y6 a- Y" \
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She predicted that the total number of residential sales isn't expected to increase in 2007 - despite thousands of pot-of-gold seekers still flocking to the capital region from across the country as Ontario continues to sputter.
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"There just won't be enough houses to sell," she sighed. : D1 ?- C) G: ?2 @1 l
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Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation senior analyst Richard Goatcher was also talking a good-news-bad-news scenario at the board meeting. 1 ~. E# T; L1 r$ \8 ?% y2 @0 U1 A
5 f& R% n0 M$ F. Z& d9 [9 \' L4 c"The big issue is, are we going to see continued in-migration into the city with the volumes we had last year?" Goatcher said. His expectation is "somewhat less."
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. r+ o8 E0 j8 D: u" uStill, total new-house starts will be "fairly similar" to last year's pace. 2006 turned out to be a record year. So was 2005. But Goatcher is predicting a 5% decrease in house starts. : {6 |' `9 m, H4 c, |( Q
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"A lot of it is due to capacity issues," he said. Developers are running out of serviced lots in some areas. Some homebuilders "got a little overstretched" during last year's house-building frenzy. - Q3 o s! d# e$ v; |/ V# Y
/ A5 R8 N% u0 m1 a"There are too many shortages in the system," he shrugged. 4 w e1 K5 b% [ W- w [
2 s( o) T! {4 ]! b5 H"But it's still going to be very, very strong," he quickly added, with the average new-home selling price ramping up by 20%.
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NO PRICE BOOM REPEAT
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He also doesn't see a repeat of the 2006 price boom in the resale market, which he described as "unsustainable."
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- P1 ^7 t3 E7 J) h' O* \Expect a more gentle 10% increase - mainly because many potential buyers are now being priced out of the market - even with zero down payment and 40-year mortgages. , c$ O8 M( Z' I1 |* p
3 _! l( w1 \0 XOver at ComFree Edmonton, president Travis Holowach was also celebrating what he described as a "steaming red hot" real estate market, and another "record-setting" year for his commission-free real estate service.
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His 2006 wind-up report shows 4,375 total sales and 5,721 new listings, up 74% from 2005 - clearly sucking up a lot of the inventory that would otherwise have gone to an EREB realtor.
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5 e$ j: P. ~; O% O7 K"Our growing presence in the marketplace is having a strong impact on the competition," Holowach winked. 3 v2 V, u; t( Q) u2 s
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So strong that the Alberta Real Estate Association launched a complaint with Alberta Government Services claiming ComFree was bending the truth about its market share. 7 k% a) c, X; ^. a @2 E5 \
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Yesterday ComFree was still claiming 30% share of the residential market. And "commissions saved" of $82 million from his sell-it-yourself operation. Which, of course, is what the battle is really all about.
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. j/ m# s9 I# l- b+ T8 a"We do 95% of the sales in the real estate market," Pratt countered. 2 ]# N9 P0 d5 K3 Z
% x+ M3 ^" T; Y+ p2 l& ?Let the good times roll. 0 i: R0 _( J& I3 Q0 Q" I Y" w" x
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