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! X$ r- @& Q, F/ R6 H Thu January 11, 2007 www.edmontonsun.com# d6 q/ j' L6 s3 O
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1 H3 ?+ B$ Y$ s- OThu, January 11, 2007
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3 g: F5 q: L/ X2 ~+ A) fPrice is still rightEdmonton Real Estate Board president expects a 15% climb in 2007% n$ v9 `+ N* v( D; M' p
By NEIL WAUGH, EDMONTON SUN
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They're changing the guard down at the Edmonton real estate palace.
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Madeline Sarafinchan is out. Carolyn Pratt is taking over the Edmonton Real Estate Board president's gavel - the kind of blunt instrument that some realtors, I suspect, would like to use on ComFree Edmonton upstart Travis Holowach. More on that later.
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0 V! u: U; ]( T0 @3 N- XBut first, the EREB president's bold predictions and fearless forecasts.
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Don't expect a repeat of last year's housing boom where condo and single family dwelling prices spiked an incredible 52%. Pratt is now calling for a more modest increase of 15%. 6 v6 A5 e% A$ C$ K9 B4 ^" ~
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'CONTINUED DEMAND' , b4 h: y/ i2 d
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"We feel the increase will come because there will be continued demand, consumer confidence, a very robust economy and low interest rates," Pratt whooped at the EREB's New Year's kick-off conference at the Westin. "All the factors are there for another terrific year."
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$ s$ L+ a* [4 p, A1 N- I( I1 T+ sShe predicted that the total number of residential sales isn't expected to increase in 2007 - despite thousands of pot-of-gold seekers still flocking to the capital region from across the country as Ontario continues to sputter.
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"There just won't be enough houses to sell," she sighed.
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5 H7 F! q3 I; {/ n' l; ~5 aCanada Mortgage and Housing Corporation senior analyst Richard Goatcher was also talking a good-news-bad-news scenario at the board meeting.
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"The big issue is, are we going to see continued in-migration into the city with the volumes we had last year?" Goatcher said. His expectation is "somewhat less."
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Still, total new-house starts will be "fairly similar" to last year's pace. 2006 turned out to be a record year. So was 2005. But Goatcher is predicting a 5% decrease in house starts.
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"A lot of it is due to capacity issues," he said. Developers are running out of serviced lots in some areas. Some homebuilders "got a little overstretched" during last year's house-building frenzy. - X3 Y. ^$ w/ e, f. g7 ~4 ^
; P* Q# p6 ~ u2 m6 u0 O9 X6 e"There are too many shortages in the system," he shrugged. 2 S) x/ ]. X; ?! b' T% ~, P9 B
* c7 z" s' h; q3 f6 r2 ^ k& Q"But it's still going to be very, very strong," he quickly added, with the average new-home selling price ramping up by 20%. 0 c# T- Y+ y& H
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He also doesn't see a repeat of the 2006 price boom in the resale market, which he described as "unsustainable."
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( G$ ?5 R! Q/ {3 j+ }3 OExpect a more gentle 10% increase - mainly because many potential buyers are now being priced out of the market - even with zero down payment and 40-year mortgages. 8 |, m7 N6 O6 U8 i" d# D
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Over at ComFree Edmonton, president Travis Holowach was also celebrating what he described as a "steaming red hot" real estate market, and another "record-setting" year for his commission-free real estate service. % e3 w; o9 A, D! A, z: N
9 E4 |( e3 N9 z$ j( H, `His 2006 wind-up report shows 4,375 total sales and 5,721 new listings, up 74% from 2005 - clearly sucking up a lot of the inventory that would otherwise have gone to an EREB realtor. 9 y A6 F; ^3 j4 V8 W
. \1 p0 k+ y) ?8 d- H, d' g, Q"Our growing presence in the marketplace is having a strong impact on the competition," Holowach winked.
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# y3 O0 Z0 {. _% \So strong that the Alberta Real Estate Association launched a complaint with Alberta Government Services claiming ComFree was bending the truth about its market share. : T: \0 M p# m9 W1 Y, d
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Yesterday ComFree was still claiming 30% share of the residential market. And "commissions saved" of $82 million from his sell-it-yourself operation. Which, of course, is what the battle is really all about. . a. g& m- }9 G' ?- m+ Y
; Z1 j+ L* y) q; S6 S- H"We do 95% of the sales in the real estate market," Pratt countered. - L1 e. q( Z O5 O% d4 `
|, z9 H% p9 |2 E- P6 X1 f T6 E1 w( fLet the good times roll. : B, |; E2 F" \3 d: K7 u
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Previous story: Bottom Line
- B8 q2 z# d1 ~+ F* q1 c1 V& g0 RNext story: Building permits hit record5 \7 K+ B8 k' d6 e% s
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