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% Y/ f, @! [+ r0 E2 zThu, January 11, 2007! U9 ~* K# U; k
2 ], x; ~+ P% gPrice is still rightEdmonton Real Estate Board president expects a 15% climb in 2007& Z W' W0 Y7 Y; K$ b9 c$ |1 b
By NEIL WAUGH, EDMONTON SUN
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" [% z1 P! N7 z1 b) _They're changing the guard down at the Edmonton real estate palace. ' G" h- ?3 @7 j6 B; C( {
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Madeline Sarafinchan is out. Carolyn Pratt is taking over the Edmonton Real Estate Board president's gavel - the kind of blunt instrument that some realtors, I suspect, would like to use on ComFree Edmonton upstart Travis Holowach. More on that later.
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8 ~+ D7 L* X% z6 V1 w5 w3 CBut first, the EREB president's bold predictions and fearless forecasts.
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3 U) @7 M$ F6 pDon't expect a repeat of last year's housing boom where condo and single family dwelling prices spiked an incredible 52%. Pratt is now calling for a more modest increase of 15%.
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) w7 H$ z5 ` `+ W8 D8 J: s/ Z"We feel the increase will come because there will be continued demand, consumer confidence, a very robust economy and low interest rates," Pratt whooped at the EREB's New Year's kick-off conference at the Westin. "All the factors are there for another terrific year." 1 m$ y4 N8 c2 ]2 K
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She predicted that the total number of residential sales isn't expected to increase in 2007 - despite thousands of pot-of-gold seekers still flocking to the capital region from across the country as Ontario continues to sputter. 3 N$ a& j# w# c1 r" \3 f
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"There just won't be enough houses to sell," she sighed.
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Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation senior analyst Richard Goatcher was also talking a good-news-bad-news scenario at the board meeting.
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* q& @* E* t- o"The big issue is, are we going to see continued in-migration into the city with the volumes we had last year?" Goatcher said. His expectation is "somewhat less."
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& ^9 a; n3 J0 I* r7 F; L2 I7 zStill, total new-house starts will be "fairly similar" to last year's pace. 2006 turned out to be a record year. So was 2005. But Goatcher is predicting a 5% decrease in house starts. " |/ ^9 z3 |4 ~) D/ p/ `
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"A lot of it is due to capacity issues," he said. Developers are running out of serviced lots in some areas. Some homebuilders "got a little overstretched" during last year's house-building frenzy.
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4 [. c) H9 b& G. |+ ]"There are too many shortages in the system," he shrugged.
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"But it's still going to be very, very strong," he quickly added, with the average new-home selling price ramping up by 20%.
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NO PRICE BOOM REPEAT
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; H% u+ @; b) E% ^8 O: O; UHe also doesn't see a repeat of the 2006 price boom in the resale market, which he described as "unsustainable." 7 V+ C& {/ `0 `% ~2 ?# M8 e
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Expect a more gentle 10% increase - mainly because many potential buyers are now being priced out of the market - even with zero down payment and 40-year mortgages.
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Over at ComFree Edmonton, president Travis Holowach was also celebrating what he described as a "steaming red hot" real estate market, and another "record-setting" year for his commission-free real estate service.
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His 2006 wind-up report shows 4,375 total sales and 5,721 new listings, up 74% from 2005 - clearly sucking up a lot of the inventory that would otherwise have gone to an EREB realtor.
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5 Y/ e# L1 z1 P. j* C"Our growing presence in the marketplace is having a strong impact on the competition," Holowach winked. 5 ]) v( {, ` K5 I" v6 P: ~
! Q9 x+ r2 }; t: S7 s) E0 v8 lSo strong that the Alberta Real Estate Association launched a complaint with Alberta Government Services claiming ComFree was bending the truth about its market share.
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$ q9 [& o7 g$ C* b# a2 dYesterday ComFree was still claiming 30% share of the residential market. And "commissions saved" of $82 million from his sell-it-yourself operation. Which, of course, is what the battle is really all about.
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"We do 95% of the sales in the real estate market," Pratt countered. 5 H; n4 K" Y$ r7 y6 F4 m
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Let the good times roll.
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