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+ P0 \+ R' _ X% x* U- ^ Thu January 11, 2007 www.edmontonsun.com& Q& z. b3 T7 }* a$ w& j% m) v/ J& |
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/ _. s5 J$ C; i8 z, EThu, January 11, 2007( w/ }, v- X! F* w& @, y6 g
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Price is still rightEdmonton Real Estate Board president expects a 15% climb in 2007
0 b2 I9 h, k' _9 c; t3 G7 `9 g" i3 MBy NEIL WAUGH, EDMONTON SUN
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/ E; ], Z7 c+ W! gThey're changing the guard down at the Edmonton real estate palace.
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; S' u* i* t5 MMadeline Sarafinchan is out. Carolyn Pratt is taking over the Edmonton Real Estate Board president's gavel - the kind of blunt instrument that some realtors, I suspect, would like to use on ComFree Edmonton upstart Travis Holowach. More on that later.
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But first, the EREB president's bold predictions and fearless forecasts.
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" S" R+ Q$ \' j/ k" z0 ]: ODon't expect a repeat of last year's housing boom where condo and single family dwelling prices spiked an incredible 52%. Pratt is now calling for a more modest increase of 15%.
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"We feel the increase will come because there will be continued demand, consumer confidence, a very robust economy and low interest rates," Pratt whooped at the EREB's New Year's kick-off conference at the Westin. "All the factors are there for another terrific year." & r7 I" D3 k6 w' ~6 d5 I f5 e5 K
% \( u- y9 w# l0 j" K+ }# zShe predicted that the total number of residential sales isn't expected to increase in 2007 - despite thousands of pot-of-gold seekers still flocking to the capital region from across the country as Ontario continues to sputter.
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"There just won't be enough houses to sell," she sighed. 2 J7 E/ O9 d, i/ E0 j. c
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Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation senior analyst Richard Goatcher was also talking a good-news-bad-news scenario at the board meeting. . ^; o2 K) ^1 B, \4 @4 ~- M; `& O0 W
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"The big issue is, are we going to see continued in-migration into the city with the volumes we had last year?" Goatcher said. His expectation is "somewhat less." 4 U/ X( a7 S+ B, G- ^( T3 G0 s
5 [& }: u% W1 e# VStill, total new-house starts will be "fairly similar" to last year's pace. 2006 turned out to be a record year. So was 2005. But Goatcher is predicting a 5% decrease in house starts.
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3 R! }, u4 m7 X& e"A lot of it is due to capacity issues," he said. Developers are running out of serviced lots in some areas. Some homebuilders "got a little overstretched" during last year's house-building frenzy. ! N* ~7 w" w( N1 D; Y p
6 [" h; d1 `4 ^: U"There are too many shortages in the system," he shrugged.
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# | h6 _9 p- L; M"But it's still going to be very, very strong," he quickly added, with the average new-home selling price ramping up by 20%.
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) U% D% s6 F/ tHe also doesn't see a repeat of the 2006 price boom in the resale market, which he described as "unsustainable."
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Expect a more gentle 10% increase - mainly because many potential buyers are now being priced out of the market - even with zero down payment and 40-year mortgages.
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Over at ComFree Edmonton, president Travis Holowach was also celebrating what he described as a "steaming red hot" real estate market, and another "record-setting" year for his commission-free real estate service. ' |1 v& X6 A) m( b d1 F# v
/ o4 K; ?% ~, |6 tHis 2006 wind-up report shows 4,375 total sales and 5,721 new listings, up 74% from 2005 - clearly sucking up a lot of the inventory that would otherwise have gone to an EREB realtor.
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- k3 Q' A4 @: K {, Q# S"Our growing presence in the marketplace is having a strong impact on the competition," Holowach winked.
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5 c9 S. n" A4 i YSo strong that the Alberta Real Estate Association launched a complaint with Alberta Government Services claiming ComFree was bending the truth about its market share. $ |0 G& r+ i5 u& _9 V& j
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Yesterday ComFree was still claiming 30% share of the residential market. And "commissions saved" of $82 million from his sell-it-yourself operation. Which, of course, is what the battle is really all about.
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8 _! D7 @, y' D"We do 95% of the sales in the real estate market," Pratt countered.
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4 \) p( O2 K) [2 o) NLet the good times roll.
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6 }* A3 ^" O/ uPrevious story: Bottom Line/ s5 c6 S9 a) X' `
Next story: Building permits hit record" b7 J3 S; G; z- d% @% B
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