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+ D2 W; s" m9 M/ A7 _ Thu January 11, 2007 www.edmontonsun.com& ~, G6 V' l9 d) ~
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" E0 d7 t! r. _! UThu, January 11, 2007
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Price is still rightEdmonton Real Estate Board president expects a 15% climb in 2007
7 z1 C, @+ I% {; q8 YBy NEIL WAUGH, EDMONTON SUN
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. ~+ z5 `6 o @! M7 c/ gThey're changing the guard down at the Edmonton real estate palace. 1 t" [2 x. v. d; K9 E! x" P
* p/ R8 n7 N& u; O7 x2 DMadeline Sarafinchan is out. Carolyn Pratt is taking over the Edmonton Real Estate Board president's gavel - the kind of blunt instrument that some realtors, I suspect, would like to use on ComFree Edmonton upstart Travis Holowach. More on that later. . m' f" u0 S x" C" U
2 k1 n, m' U8 Q9 Y" Q, K' XBut first, the EREB president's bold predictions and fearless forecasts. & G2 x4 Q; W: v
! C1 e+ c+ {$ w) J' VDon't expect a repeat of last year's housing boom where condo and single family dwelling prices spiked an incredible 52%. Pratt is now calling for a more modest increase of 15%. - }) ]( v* b( x. I4 Z
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'CONTINUED DEMAND' " X0 R4 I3 z6 U7 b. `, |& T9 Z
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( ?/ Y) p* [6 d0 B! c"We feel the increase will come because there will be continued demand, consumer confidence, a very robust economy and low interest rates," Pratt whooped at the EREB's New Year's kick-off conference at the Westin. "All the factors are there for another terrific year."
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She predicted that the total number of residential sales isn't expected to increase in 2007 - despite thousands of pot-of-gold seekers still flocking to the capital region from across the country as Ontario continues to sputter.
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& g1 r; N6 ?6 h$ j) C$ c( Z% |"There just won't be enough houses to sell," she sighed.
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Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation senior analyst Richard Goatcher was also talking a good-news-bad-news scenario at the board meeting.
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"The big issue is, are we going to see continued in-migration into the city with the volumes we had last year?" Goatcher said. His expectation is "somewhat less."
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% ?8 s) u8 i' R& ]! v, S+ GStill, total new-house starts will be "fairly similar" to last year's pace. 2006 turned out to be a record year. So was 2005. But Goatcher is predicting a 5% decrease in house starts. }, w' f! \4 Z& y
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"A lot of it is due to capacity issues," he said. Developers are running out of serviced lots in some areas. Some homebuilders "got a little overstretched" during last year's house-building frenzy.
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"There are too many shortages in the system," he shrugged.
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8 B8 b4 j O( d1 m. d9 Q3 M* u"But it's still going to be very, very strong," he quickly added, with the average new-home selling price ramping up by 20%.
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NO PRICE BOOM REPEAT % N, y2 d# G- Y+ _# r
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He also doesn't see a repeat of the 2006 price boom in the resale market, which he described as "unsustainable." # U& [8 B* P( m4 t2 L# @/ U
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Expect a more gentle 10% increase - mainly because many potential buyers are now being priced out of the market - even with zero down payment and 40-year mortgages. ) t$ B2 ?. p1 P( [" K" @
I% w* A2 j4 o( Y cOver at ComFree Edmonton, president Travis Holowach was also celebrating what he described as a "steaming red hot" real estate market, and another "record-setting" year for his commission-free real estate service. 3 Y0 c+ H3 p, [& T6 x3 M& O2 `
2 n7 s% C; ~& THis 2006 wind-up report shows 4,375 total sales and 5,721 new listings, up 74% from 2005 - clearly sucking up a lot of the inventory that would otherwise have gone to an EREB realtor. # q) ?: \2 \" _: C6 C0 [) Z' N% |' m
* Y: V: `& {# j1 B9 k7 _"Our growing presence in the marketplace is having a strong impact on the competition," Holowach winked.
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3 l6 {3 t' H. P: ]3 ]& W4 I9 kSo strong that the Alberta Real Estate Association launched a complaint with Alberta Government Services claiming ComFree was bending the truth about its market share.
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1 T0 C% ?# n' U0 G9 l; G3 L' N! CYesterday ComFree was still claiming 30% share of the residential market. And "commissions saved" of $82 million from his sell-it-yourself operation. Which, of course, is what the battle is really all about.
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) a$ @$ \, n0 `8 k- ^- F* L0 o" C# ]7 q"We do 95% of the sales in the real estate market," Pratt countered.
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) t9 n: ^$ f: o/ g; g/ @$ X" rLet the good times roll.
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9 w. d, B8 g0 e sPrevious story: Bottom Line1 f2 {3 G3 C Z' O4 `6 Z, A
Next story: Building permits hit record; Q- P7 C0 H3 }0 \& r
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