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Thu January 11, 2007 www.edmontonsun.com
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4 a% }$ y; Y5 GPrice is still rightEdmonton Real Estate Board president expects a 15% climb in 2007- A5 H. q1 R8 J5 v) a
By NEIL WAUGH, EDMONTON SUN
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6 i9 p, q0 k% b9 m/ B1 i& J3 B% O" PThey're changing the guard down at the Edmonton real estate palace. 1 L) B. k1 Z$ ?, w$ U8 P
% o$ m1 e, {" X8 z" T$ D) jMadeline Sarafinchan is out. Carolyn Pratt is taking over the Edmonton Real Estate Board president's gavel - the kind of blunt instrument that some realtors, I suspect, would like to use on ComFree Edmonton upstart Travis Holowach. More on that later.
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But first, the EREB president's bold predictions and fearless forecasts.
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Don't expect a repeat of last year's housing boom where condo and single family dwelling prices spiked an incredible 52%. Pratt is now calling for a more modest increase of 15%.
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'CONTINUED DEMAND' ^2 s4 J& k1 K4 L- r
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+ a, h- E( z8 h0 ~; A6 X. Q* J"We feel the increase will come because there will be continued demand, consumer confidence, a very robust economy and low interest rates," Pratt whooped at the EREB's New Year's kick-off conference at the Westin. "All the factors are there for another terrific year."
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She predicted that the total number of residential sales isn't expected to increase in 2007 - despite thousands of pot-of-gold seekers still flocking to the capital region from across the country as Ontario continues to sputter. 4 w3 {- L# f2 l3 a! d
0 x! x( j* W* u/ ~* p7 k" q"There just won't be enough houses to sell," she sighed. $ ~& ^2 t5 C, U- E/ e) h4 ?7 I
F7 h) c2 T1 b$ k5 r5 VCanada Mortgage and Housing Corporation senior analyst Richard Goatcher was also talking a good-news-bad-news scenario at the board meeting.
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"The big issue is, are we going to see continued in-migration into the city with the volumes we had last year?" Goatcher said. His expectation is "somewhat less." 1 m- I/ K0 O+ C, t, \5 m' b" p
4 w1 L _& q8 q5 tStill, total new-house starts will be "fairly similar" to last year's pace. 2006 turned out to be a record year. So was 2005. But Goatcher is predicting a 5% decrease in house starts. 8 [; k3 }* ~+ W
& R. ?0 n1 \& X C" g"A lot of it is due to capacity issues," he said. Developers are running out of serviced lots in some areas. Some homebuilders "got a little overstretched" during last year's house-building frenzy.
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"There are too many shortages in the system," he shrugged. % z1 q& j2 z9 b8 z& [+ E8 |! n
. D, |; d6 P% ]% @! Q0 t/ X8 F' }"But it's still going to be very, very strong," he quickly added, with the average new-home selling price ramping up by 20%.
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NO PRICE BOOM REPEAT
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: A# D j! U1 q9 Z' ?He also doesn't see a repeat of the 2006 price boom in the resale market, which he described as "unsustainable." & c- S5 I: O) K0 n' d; {# C
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Expect a more gentle 10% increase - mainly because many potential buyers are now being priced out of the market - even with zero down payment and 40-year mortgages. 7 N! W1 F8 }% Q
" J2 ]$ X- E+ u, Z. G3 qOver at ComFree Edmonton, president Travis Holowach was also celebrating what he described as a "steaming red hot" real estate market, and another "record-setting" year for his commission-free real estate service.
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His 2006 wind-up report shows 4,375 total sales and 5,721 new listings, up 74% from 2005 - clearly sucking up a lot of the inventory that would otherwise have gone to an EREB realtor. ( ]1 y% I3 g* |2 u) J @
9 x" z; b3 ~) {( @; L, l"Our growing presence in the marketplace is having a strong impact on the competition," Holowach winked. . Y8 v% e; @$ B8 `6 X3 O4 c, @
: F6 P- N8 y8 _2 D" Y" VSo strong that the Alberta Real Estate Association launched a complaint with Alberta Government Services claiming ComFree was bending the truth about its market share.
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Yesterday ComFree was still claiming 30% share of the residential market. And "commissions saved" of $82 million from his sell-it-yourself operation. Which, of course, is what the battle is really all about. 1 l$ H9 F5 H3 E3 A% K
4 F$ X3 ?+ V* ~3 U"We do 95% of the sales in the real estate market," Pratt countered.
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Let the good times roll.
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Previous story: Bottom Line
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