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& a/ ~5 o _7 k* d1 h3 B4 I6 e Thu January 11, 2007 www.edmontonsun.com
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# o. s: I9 m9 S2 V/ sThu, January 11, 2007) t$ n b5 [0 {& N
+ Y# E7 E: Y5 qPrice is still rightEdmonton Real Estate Board president expects a 15% climb in 2007. |. b1 ~; t2 v5 U6 R8 p
By NEIL WAUGH, EDMONTON SUN
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! x2 \& m! v4 U- k* h6 QThey're changing the guard down at the Edmonton real estate palace. 2 g: ]7 m+ m! |& \
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Madeline Sarafinchan is out. Carolyn Pratt is taking over the Edmonton Real Estate Board president's gavel - the kind of blunt instrument that some realtors, I suspect, would like to use on ComFree Edmonton upstart Travis Holowach. More on that later.
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But first, the EREB president's bold predictions and fearless forecasts. - Q- \1 f! C( W5 Y8 H3 ]" {: I6 n
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Don't expect a repeat of last year's housing boom where condo and single family dwelling prices spiked an incredible 52%. Pratt is now calling for a more modest increase of 15%. 4 m+ B0 i8 x0 [4 r4 J
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"We feel the increase will come because there will be continued demand, consumer confidence, a very robust economy and low interest rates," Pratt whooped at the EREB's New Year's kick-off conference at the Westin. "All the factors are there for another terrific year." # D* i9 D+ i9 C: b9 {; u" v/ t
p5 b! q1 y2 u. v( Y9 Q" PShe predicted that the total number of residential sales isn't expected to increase in 2007 - despite thousands of pot-of-gold seekers still flocking to the capital region from across the country as Ontario continues to sputter.
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"There just won't be enough houses to sell," she sighed. % R2 \1 |3 y+ J# I E) g- l: R0 E
3 o$ }* F# c3 x% L" FCanada Mortgage and Housing Corporation senior analyst Richard Goatcher was also talking a good-news-bad-news scenario at the board meeting. 0 o. \/ w8 n( e" v1 a% _
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"The big issue is, are we going to see continued in-migration into the city with the volumes we had last year?" Goatcher said. His expectation is "somewhat less."
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Still, total new-house starts will be "fairly similar" to last year's pace. 2006 turned out to be a record year. So was 2005. But Goatcher is predicting a 5% decrease in house starts.
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q B4 Y! G/ I. d. h Z- m"A lot of it is due to capacity issues," he said. Developers are running out of serviced lots in some areas. Some homebuilders "got a little overstretched" during last year's house-building frenzy. 5 E4 D8 K9 D; v2 m
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"There are too many shortages in the system," he shrugged. # u: C7 y3 h$ l$ b0 L3 R
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"But it's still going to be very, very strong," he quickly added, with the average new-home selling price ramping up by 20%.
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NO PRICE BOOM REPEAT
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# H8 F4 P8 J9 M, `; u* \: |9 GHe also doesn't see a repeat of the 2006 price boom in the resale market, which he described as "unsustainable."
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- [ b/ g, y4 R* k! mExpect a more gentle 10% increase - mainly because many potential buyers are now being priced out of the market - even with zero down payment and 40-year mortgages.
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) q6 r- [& m7 v7 w5 g: @Over at ComFree Edmonton, president Travis Holowach was also celebrating what he described as a "steaming red hot" real estate market, and another "record-setting" year for his commission-free real estate service. 1 z) \6 w+ U- v+ Q
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His 2006 wind-up report shows 4,375 total sales and 5,721 new listings, up 74% from 2005 - clearly sucking up a lot of the inventory that would otherwise have gone to an EREB realtor. 5 _* ?8 E$ j A5 t u9 n0 {" B
. E$ W1 S5 }- k8 X"Our growing presence in the marketplace is having a strong impact on the competition," Holowach winked. : {# e/ Q9 m% Z7 `: Z! `2 `# _
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So strong that the Alberta Real Estate Association launched a complaint with Alberta Government Services claiming ComFree was bending the truth about its market share.
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Yesterday ComFree was still claiming 30% share of the residential market. And "commissions saved" of $82 million from his sell-it-yourself operation. Which, of course, is what the battle is really all about.
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1 D q+ L: {3 ^3 s' R6 a5 @- {"We do 95% of the sales in the real estate market," Pratt countered.
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Let the good times roll. * [1 `2 u% c, J" P! e' z; C
- a$ Q0 g ^( v- d- g+ VPrevious story: Bottom Line, |# n1 B& z; w
Next story: Building permits hit record' p$ P% |, @, S* Z9 P8 ^) Z
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