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Thu January 11, 2007 www.edmontonsun.com* l6 n+ |: }: i; t. W# ?
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Thu, January 11, 2007
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1 C& S6 B/ e! K. zPrice is still rightEdmonton Real Estate Board president expects a 15% climb in 2007
' a# q" ~ z+ W8 [By NEIL WAUGH, EDMONTON SUN& ^) Y5 J0 S& r: H- F7 K# e
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They're changing the guard down at the Edmonton real estate palace. 4 ]( o1 ]! j3 ~$ R/ [1 q
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Madeline Sarafinchan is out. Carolyn Pratt is taking over the Edmonton Real Estate Board president's gavel - the kind of blunt instrument that some realtors, I suspect, would like to use on ComFree Edmonton upstart Travis Holowach. More on that later.
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But first, the EREB president's bold predictions and fearless forecasts. ! s4 u0 b$ [' K5 H, E
' F$ a# @8 m1 G1 p1 `Don't expect a repeat of last year's housing boom where condo and single family dwelling prices spiked an incredible 52%. Pratt is now calling for a more modest increase of 15%.
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"We feel the increase will come because there will be continued demand, consumer confidence, a very robust economy and low interest rates," Pratt whooped at the EREB's New Year's kick-off conference at the Westin. "All the factors are there for another terrific year." * F* D* g8 R3 V( q% J( r" n
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She predicted that the total number of residential sales isn't expected to increase in 2007 - despite thousands of pot-of-gold seekers still flocking to the capital region from across the country as Ontario continues to sputter.
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"There just won't be enough houses to sell," she sighed.
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7 @( {: d6 L0 u: M/ J- p, x/ m FCanada Mortgage and Housing Corporation senior analyst Richard Goatcher was also talking a good-news-bad-news scenario at the board meeting.
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# y+ Q2 X, d* W8 C# n9 C"The big issue is, are we going to see continued in-migration into the city with the volumes we had last year?" Goatcher said. His expectation is "somewhat less."
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Still, total new-house starts will be "fairly similar" to last year's pace. 2006 turned out to be a record year. So was 2005. But Goatcher is predicting a 5% decrease in house starts.
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8 q$ Z" n# h# w6 @8 n"A lot of it is due to capacity issues," he said. Developers are running out of serviced lots in some areas. Some homebuilders "got a little overstretched" during last year's house-building frenzy.
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( w9 r) x( S% L; n5 i' [% D8 A"There are too many shortages in the system," he shrugged. ! N6 T8 c1 v2 r
9 w* Q8 ~5 R2 f- m' B' [! c"But it's still going to be very, very strong," he quickly added, with the average new-home selling price ramping up by 20%.
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2 `0 G- ?! k- m6 m# p4 O U8 sHe also doesn't see a repeat of the 2006 price boom in the resale market, which he described as "unsustainable."
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; E( X n! _5 B6 {# ~Expect a more gentle 10% increase - mainly because many potential buyers are now being priced out of the market - even with zero down payment and 40-year mortgages. 4 w* U+ O4 e8 ^+ [
& |! N; G! v- u* d0 `4 |. s0 M: ?Over at ComFree Edmonton, president Travis Holowach was also celebrating what he described as a "steaming red hot" real estate market, and another "record-setting" year for his commission-free real estate service.
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9 e8 r& M2 [& `% ]: E4 e0 Z ~7 ~( zHis 2006 wind-up report shows 4,375 total sales and 5,721 new listings, up 74% from 2005 - clearly sucking up a lot of the inventory that would otherwise have gone to an EREB realtor. : H2 \" T: a. q' N6 u8 H( u
; j+ U- y [. o3 q6 f"Our growing presence in the marketplace is having a strong impact on the competition," Holowach winked. * u( e- I3 S: u) }
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So strong that the Alberta Real Estate Association launched a complaint with Alberta Government Services claiming ComFree was bending the truth about its market share. / e) z* m6 |# n+ y
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Yesterday ComFree was still claiming 30% share of the residential market. And "commissions saved" of $82 million from his sell-it-yourself operation. Which, of course, is what the battle is really all about. ! y1 K3 b6 W4 P6 B& S- S% A
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"We do 95% of the sales in the real estate market," Pratt countered.
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, q, B5 H! Q1 ?Let the good times roll. 4 s+ s9 u3 @) M% U
b; m: }; E6 J$ E( |9 O8 o2 wPrevious story: Bottom Line5 i) v2 M' v/ }- t$ p5 x
Next story: Building permits hit record( w7 h# O- y& ~. u& ~
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2 {% b! ^8 v4 z- h This site is updated by 4:00 a.m. MST each day and includes stories and columns from the day's print edition of The Edmonton Sun.
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