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Thu January 11, 2007 www.edmontonsun.com4 }. p: G7 e2 |
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/ i/ {+ ] U$ t3 ~8 d, }+ E( ~ In Tomorrow's PaperGet the latest Oilers news every day in Sports. Or check our Oilers homepage here.# b( u3 V. Q$ p4 U" J/ s
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' G5 W! Y6 M5 I7 DThu, January 11, 20070 l' f! _: {: Z, r0 Q/ k8 X+ n
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Price is still rightEdmonton Real Estate Board president expects a 15% climb in 2007
9 u/ R5 ~! ?3 d- S- f& XBy NEIL WAUGH, EDMONTON SUN
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+ Q; m4 M5 A& D! O* Q, I+ sThey're changing the guard down at the Edmonton real estate palace. $ _6 Z% y" m4 Q% P4 w w9 G* h
$ b1 h# V7 L# C5 y4 @8 a5 v! eMadeline Sarafinchan is out. Carolyn Pratt is taking over the Edmonton Real Estate Board president's gavel - the kind of blunt instrument that some realtors, I suspect, would like to use on ComFree Edmonton upstart Travis Holowach. More on that later.
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# I4 ^- e' N- O+ b5 x( G, VBut first, the EREB president's bold predictions and fearless forecasts. 2 v. w+ G% E0 a" q1 J% f. Y7 D7 w) l
8 n7 x9 o! [# w* D0 Y" X. IDon't expect a repeat of last year's housing boom where condo and single family dwelling prices spiked an incredible 52%. Pratt is now calling for a more modest increase of 15%. 7 N8 U" C$ T5 U
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"We feel the increase will come because there will be continued demand, consumer confidence, a very robust economy and low interest rates," Pratt whooped at the EREB's New Year's kick-off conference at the Westin. "All the factors are there for another terrific year."
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8 G6 H2 q* [5 r3 pShe predicted that the total number of residential sales isn't expected to increase in 2007 - despite thousands of pot-of-gold seekers still flocking to the capital region from across the country as Ontario continues to sputter. : U' v/ ^# S g0 h
2 U" A: F8 O7 S: h- B" T"There just won't be enough houses to sell," she sighed. : e3 e ]! A- c E4 X3 M$ K) D! P
9 y9 {) ]3 W! r; I% nCanada Mortgage and Housing Corporation senior analyst Richard Goatcher was also talking a good-news-bad-news scenario at the board meeting. " ]& [7 R9 B V. g/ U
: p2 p# O# H' |1 m% W, u/ G"The big issue is, are we going to see continued in-migration into the city with the volumes we had last year?" Goatcher said. His expectation is "somewhat less." . C* X& a0 S3 S. x6 Q
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Still, total new-house starts will be "fairly similar" to last year's pace. 2006 turned out to be a record year. So was 2005. But Goatcher is predicting a 5% decrease in house starts. + ~4 R" x. k( u8 r+ m2 z
; E- G0 B+ y3 C1 N"A lot of it is due to capacity issues," he said. Developers are running out of serviced lots in some areas. Some homebuilders "got a little overstretched" during last year's house-building frenzy. 8 {8 S/ y$ {9 O! ~8 p4 @ T
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"There are too many shortages in the system," he shrugged.
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"But it's still going to be very, very strong," he quickly added, with the average new-home selling price ramping up by 20%. ) O# @* @4 S! e$ h
" M1 u: \0 Z% E2 vNO PRICE BOOM REPEAT : K% {$ J6 d4 l( s, I
, e! |. j2 V `. U# H4 J, P- yHe also doesn't see a repeat of the 2006 price boom in the resale market, which he described as "unsustainable." * V5 s9 P1 K2 @" m9 o0 {8 R
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Expect a more gentle 10% increase - mainly because many potential buyers are now being priced out of the market - even with zero down payment and 40-year mortgages. 4 r& W. R7 `) X6 `+ d: q5 M
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Over at ComFree Edmonton, president Travis Holowach was also celebrating what he described as a "steaming red hot" real estate market, and another "record-setting" year for his commission-free real estate service. 7 T5 b4 i& I% @* @
$ ]1 ]/ |6 a2 WHis 2006 wind-up report shows 4,375 total sales and 5,721 new listings, up 74% from 2005 - clearly sucking up a lot of the inventory that would otherwise have gone to an EREB realtor.
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; r" [% o) X) Z; u! N"Our growing presence in the marketplace is having a strong impact on the competition," Holowach winked. % k; b' {4 Q1 `) H$ D5 z
9 i; ]* z6 L3 ~9 u# Q& RSo strong that the Alberta Real Estate Association launched a complaint with Alberta Government Services claiming ComFree was bending the truth about its market share.
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Yesterday ComFree was still claiming 30% share of the residential market. And "commissions saved" of $82 million from his sell-it-yourself operation. Which, of course, is what the battle is really all about. ' w4 k6 t0 z" d& B% |2 ^
% D0 u Q5 @' I+ ]"We do 95% of the sales in the real estate market," Pratt countered. : C4 U" J2 U0 h5 \2 W2 A L* p( g
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Let the good times roll.
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8 t( D9 o; K4 x6 q: \" Z( b, {$ HPrevious story: Bottom Line+ H! V6 A7 Q& u: p$ ^1 _) ~# G
Next story: Building permits hit record
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发表于 2007-1-11 19:22
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发表于 2007-1-14 18:29
