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本帖最后由 UncleSam 于 2017-4-2 20:04 编辑 * ~* n+ l% |( m; [% I
( [- V3 A: ^ k9 v& R有一定道理,最近看到2015年在油价50元时预测油价大跌40%的Mark Yusko of Morgan Creek Capital Management, 就预测今年油价最低到40出头,年底回到60元。他还有一个观点,大家也应该意识到了,各种因素决定了油价在40到50区间徘徊的时间会很长。也许熬到今年底,大家的日子就好过些了。( E/ [( p; H0 X7 a
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" c" a# j2 p' I9 @- a, P( {" c' S- kMan who called the oil crush now sees this7 y. i3 ^) D% w8 G7 c G6 w
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in Oil & Companies News 29/03/2017
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4 ?) Y& w4 h; u1 t$ k4 K X5 FTwo years ago, when oil was trading around $50 a barrel, one hedge fund manager boldly called a 40 percent decline in the commodity, a prediction for which he has come to be known.; p3 G q+ u d# ?5 C' k
5 ~; q( E" p4 X7 ]- `Oil hit a low of $26.21 in February 2016, one year after his call, before rallying to just above $50.
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Now, as crude oil has fallen over 10 percent year to date and has traded in a range for much of this year, Mark Yusko of Morgan Creek Capital Management sees crude falling even further — but ending the year near $60 a barrel.
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8 v; _/ _' R- c# a% F- \) i1 C9 d3 P“We think oil’s kind of going to be stuck in a rut here. I think there are a lot of oil bulls out there, particularly at the beginning of the year,” he said Friday in an interview on CNBC’s “Trading Nation.”; H3 f9 K; M/ i( a N
0 v8 \6 Y# U2 @1 h* q! w% iCrude oil will likely “drift from the low $40s up toward $60 by the end of the year. I think it’ll be pretty flatish in the $50s during the summer, and then we’ll get that last December rally into year-end like we got last year, and probably finish in the high 50s, maybe hit $60.”( L( u5 x! l3 I4 w1 X
8 M+ |: k. H, e- R1 e6 M; NThe increase in U.S. production this year has come as a surprise, Yusko said. U.S. crude oil stocks rose to a record high in mid-March, according to Energy Information Administration data. WTI crude oil settled higher on Friday, at $48.14 a barrel.! \1 o' b- [* Z9 w7 C
0 j9 {$ Z/ U0 z9 {! }Yusko likes energy names like Diamondback Energy, Pioneer Energy, Parsley Energy and RSP Permian.
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When it comes to the broader markets at this juncture, Yusko senses “a lot of bluster and not a lot of substance.”
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; ^. u4 p, \ f, U7 t5 R; n“There’s a lot of hope built into these markets today on the Trump trifecta of regulatory relief and tax cuts and fiscal spending. And I think there’s going to be a whole lot of nothing by the end of the year.”
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Looking back, Yusko’s 2015 call served him well. In February 2015, Yusko wrote in a note, “speculative long futures positions drives Oil down close to the 2008 lows ($30)” under the headline, “No Fracking : Y x1 `- J2 K1 {
Around.”
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. A$ R- g- S" b+ QFurthermore, “prices stay in the $40-$50 range much longer than expected as structural challenges in the U.S. and OPEC make it difficult for market participants to move supply/demand back into balance,” he wrote.; j. d8 K8 _! v+ |8 f1 t
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Source: CNBC
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