鲜花( 1) 鸡蛋( 0)
|
本帖最后由 UncleSam 于 2017-4-2 20:04 编辑
( I+ Q* j& R* _4 A+ y8 x5 H
+ A E% ^- U; B% }' s& y有一定道理,最近看到2015年在油价50元时预测油价大跌40%的Mark Yusko of Morgan Creek Capital Management, 就预测今年油价最低到40出头,年底回到60元。他还有一个观点,大家也应该意识到了,各种因素决定了油价在40到50区间徘徊的时间会很长。也许熬到今年底,大家的日子就好过些了。& U, f* L# _; ]
; [0 c B& b' ~4 J1 t8 N# B5 f1 \) R6 l
$ ]. G) h! h. F/ U) [, o
Man who called the oil crush now sees this
& @3 E1 W U. h1 i( i0 N( q+ J' o! U' i2 U: O: g
in Oil & Companies News 29/03/20174 C9 ^2 o. p( T/ `1 v* B
- ?* ]3 z; J! c2 j- o% ?Two years ago, when oil was trading around $50 a barrel, one hedge fund manager boldly called a 40 percent decline in the commodity, a prediction for which he has come to be known.2 T9 M& K [2 i1 |+ Z( w' z
+ f0 y9 a; }! {* M5 F g
Oil hit a low of $26.21 in February 2016, one year after his call, before rallying to just above $50.
7 o s* `1 C$ C* h0 Q
' @$ |" S& @! |- r' ]. P7 ^& K9 TNow, as crude oil has fallen over 10 percent year to date and has traded in a range for much of this year, Mark Yusko of Morgan Creek Capital Management sees crude falling even further — but ending the year near $60 a barrel.- x% P1 s7 E; H: P+ l, O2 x
3 `8 F5 o% r' J4 y“We think oil’s kind of going to be stuck in a rut here. I think there are a lot of oil bulls out there, particularly at the beginning of the year,” he said Friday in an interview on CNBC’s “Trading Nation.”
9 ~9 f( l8 S0 R9 R3 p; D0 ~' }; R
! s; I" ~" _9 v9 RCrude oil will likely “drift from the low $40s up toward $60 by the end of the year. I think it’ll be pretty flatish in the $50s during the summer, and then we’ll get that last December rally into year-end like we got last year, and probably finish in the high 50s, maybe hit $60.”
W, G, P- G/ O& V( P) m
! @' j4 p+ K: m4 L% r" t8 l, @% xThe increase in U.S. production this year has come as a surprise, Yusko said. U.S. crude oil stocks rose to a record high in mid-March, according to Energy Information Administration data. WTI crude oil settled higher on Friday, at $48.14 a barrel.! |! Y& z2 J0 h" ]1 \
# ~8 N9 ?. z7 T- V) n/ ZYusko likes energy names like Diamondback Energy, Pioneer Energy, Parsley Energy and RSP Permian.
6 l/ {) |6 b* r* c
& e4 q- a0 y( Y: DWhen it comes to the broader markets at this juncture, Yusko senses “a lot of bluster and not a lot of substance.”
4 f. j9 V1 h. b0 w" t% I
2 @2 G; D, V/ O“There’s a lot of hope built into these markets today on the Trump trifecta of regulatory relief and tax cuts and fiscal spending. And I think there’s going to be a whole lot of nothing by the end of the year.”- ]) C# t8 u2 m3 t: `& F
. i+ c$ g0 \4 ]; v* U b( I) I7 y
Looking back, Yusko’s 2015 call served him well. In February 2015, Yusko wrote in a note, “speculative long futures positions drives Oil down close to the 2008 lows ($30)” under the headline, “No Fracking ' R3 g; k7 I8 O) _
Around.”5 _: ^, k$ d {# T# Z
3 r" {. l: t+ l2 D: f8 a9 [Furthermore, “prices stay in the $40-$50 range much longer than expected as structural challenges in the U.S. and OPEC make it difficult for market participants to move supply/demand back into balance,” he wrote.
% ]" T9 R0 i, m! ^0 M4 t# N4 i _2 W. p; w' z$ ^$ X
Source: CNBC
) G M s7 t+ r- m$ }, Q/ u% | |
|