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本帖最后由 UncleSam 于 2017-4-2 20:04 编辑 & S- C* U* Q8 F& f+ K
3 ?( V \: G: [0 S6 C- K. a有一定道理，最近看到2015年在油价50元时预测油价大跌40%的Mark Yusko of Morgan Creek Capital Management, 就预测今年油价最低到40出头，年底回到60元。他还有一个观点，大家也应该意识到了，各种因素决定了油价在40到50区间徘徊的时间会很长。也许熬到今年底，大家的日子就好过些了。
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4 D. t' M( z$ i& A, M. h; bMan who called the oil crush now sees this2 s- K1 v) R& N8 J
) M5 ^% }$ W7 O5 b+ tin Oil & Companies News 29/03/2017/ u4 L9 r' I* `* @0 h% U
0 B& p4 E; t h, X; u$ T" S( v7 xTwo years ago, when oil was trading around $50 a barrel, one hedge fund manager boldly called a 40 percent decline in the commodity, a prediction for which he has come to be known.4 O* f( P( ^ [; i
$ G3 c( c' R3 R7 HOil hit a low of $26.21 in February 2016, one year after his call, before rallying to just above $50.
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9 n" u( z3 e# M. j% r+ }3 x9 xNow, as crude oil has fallen over 10 percent year to date and has traded in a range for much of this year, Mark Yusko of Morgan Creek Capital Management sees crude falling even further — but ending the year near $60 a barrel.6 W K/ I F! Z" O
" a4 |8 a4 @3 e- n( p" A$ V8 j“We think oil’s kind of going to be stuck in a rut here. I think there are a lot of oil bulls out there, particularly at the beginning of the year,” he said Friday in an interview on CNBC’s “Trading Nation.”
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Crude oil will likely “drift from the low $40s up toward $60 by the end of the year. I think it’ll be pretty flatish in the $50s during the summer, and then we’ll get that last December rally into year-end like we got last year, and probably finish in the high 50s, maybe hit $60.”
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The increase in U.S. production this year has come as a surprise, Yusko said. U.S. crude oil stocks rose to a record high in mid-March, according to Energy Information Administration data. WTI crude oil settled higher on Friday, at $48.14 a barrel.
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3 u# K) i1 H5 n; e7 ?# OYusko likes energy names like Diamondback Energy, Pioneer Energy, Parsley Energy and RSP Permian.# J1 E, [/ ], G' i$ J* {" I2 E
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When it comes to the broader markets at this juncture, Yusko senses “a lot of bluster and not a lot of substance.”
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& d2 E& _# C% e' ^; \; d9 ^“There’s a lot of hope built into these markets today on the Trump trifecta of regulatory relief and tax cuts and fiscal spending. And I think there’s going to be a whole lot of nothing by the end of the year.”6 T1 B' n& V R
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Looking back, Yusko’s 2015 call served him well. In February 2015, Yusko wrote in a note, “speculative long futures positions drives Oil down close to the 2008 lows ($30)” under the headline, “No Fracking % { `0 d4 _4 g3 h& {+ @7 B
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4 q; u: r5 U: ^4 X) }- oFurthermore, “prices stay in the $40-$50 range much longer than expected as structural challenges in the U.S. and OPEC make it difficult for market participants to move supply/demand back into balance,” he wrote.
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Source: CNBC( _; y O$ C, ^) z( H& u9 `/ x; T
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狗仔卡
发表于 2017-4-1 15:51
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发表于 2017-4-4 08:58
之彦老弟误会，阿稳肥妹与我老无有恋情，国内也已经劝退24岁嫩妮了，只讨了个身患慢性疾病的浦东失婚农妇做老伴，不日返还阿尔伯塔打点咖啡厅力工聊以糊口，你钻头赴俄罗斯销售方向我觊觎染指一番牟取微利，老弟你看咋样？谢了之彦！
