Long US

月满西楼

Well, I think it is the time to long the US.
, N  ?) ^2 ?: v2 _Now, there is so much pressure on Fed already from wallStreet.
If we think in the other way, now, US vs CAD is almost 1:1. How about long some US dollar and do the term deposits.
TD can give you 4.2%.
BMO can give you 4.3%.
  x) \0 I) A/ f/ FRBC can give you 4.0%.
(Roughly)
If the US will appreciate in the next yr, I think it can give you around 10%.
Also, this strategy is suitable for someone who has some US in hand or some conservative investors.
3 {  \! `3 q1 m4 {1 \4 xAlso, some of the investor might wait until Sep, 18th, 2007 because the Fed will announce the rates again.
, U; X9 N' C4 m1 O0 }* O* dFrom the reality, the pressure is around 25bps to 50bps, but we are not sure yet.
8 b, W; s/ o7 j* P2 IRough calculation:
Right now, US vs CAD: 1:1.03
Buy 10000 US cost you 105000
Deposit 10000 US in one yr term deposit (one yr later): 104000
3 s" l6 g" }$ a" k, Q" K' rIf US appreciate to 1:1:10, you will have 114400 CAD.
9 P) B5 w0 R6 ?5 u5 T6 F( n- ~If US depreciate to 1:0.90, you will have 93600 CAD.
I am not going to say which way you should go, that is the question you should arrive for yourself.
But, I am just saying another way to invest your money wisely.

" K( g' y4 a1 c1 D. f& N8 G& _3 uAll above are my own opinions, PLEASE consider the risk you can take and other factors because I am NOT going to be responsible for any losses may occur to you in the future. Thank you.

月满西楼

BTW, 5yrs Exchange Rates chart from Yahoo.
) G# }" x2 e# Z3 o

精打细算

好多人都在观望18日的利率。

小义子

原帖由 月满西楼 于 2007-9-16 11:59 发表
* E; ]( O/ [& Y7 Z2 cWell, I think it is the time to long the US.
Now, there is so much pressure on Fed already from wallStreet.
  M1 J2 N/ k4 j; C) ~1 X5 cIf we think in the other way, now, US vs CAD is almost 1:1. How about long some US do ...

0 E% \+ X6 p" G% X

这帐算得不对吧?

小义子

Buy 10000 US cost you 105000?

月满西楼

我个人觉得能再下来个25BPS。
* Y8 d& L) m0 _% l0 U3 U# Q$ E2个月左右，还有可能发行个SPECIAL FED BOND。
如果这样做的话，美国欠的外债能占不少便宜。
2 g! L, H+ W8 J1 S- `- n而且政府已经仍了1400多个亿在FINANCIAL MARKET AND BANKS里了。
政府也会需要钱。但是会不会触动全球范围内的金融小风暴，那就不知道了。

月满西楼

原帖由 小义子 于 2007-9-16 21:22 发表
9 r$ e2 c% \7 d1 {7 F. vBuy 10000 US cost you 105000?

呵呵，多打了个0。
3 E6 V' n  ]; H/ d) J, u2 Y, V
9 J* k# l4 z6 L! n; ^7 E多谢。
  m' d# ~& s( T1 \' n0 U5 }
把其他的去掉个0就可以了。

精打细算

原帖由 月满西楼 于 2007-9-16 21:26 发表
2 |6 b( t# Y  f2 N" ^我个人觉得能再下来个25BPS。
2个月左右，还有可能发行个SPECIAL FED BOND。
! _: p  z) i8 X  V/ B# l( ?( T; Q如果这样做的话，美国欠的外债能占不少便宜。
/ x* `5 y4 {4 Y7 l7 J9 e) [而且政府已经仍了1400多个亿在FINANCIAL MARKET AND BANKS里了。
- S4 [0 ]6 d0 a, `( i8 ~" @  f政府也会需要钱。 ...

6 W; p, i( `* ]( i. u( U) e但愿如此。 美元今早强劲， 对英镑已经突破了2算回到19904。 如果下来25bps就应该不错。
- L8 W3 [( j/ z% w
现在美国经济面临通胀危机，原产品， 石油价格高涨， 要解决就必须提高利率。 同时国内也面对Subprime阴影， 楼市大跌， 破产人数增加， 要解决就得降息。  看来美国中央银行不易为啊。

月满西楼

今天北美时间星期1， 上海突破5400点。不知道美国如果想？
还有一天就宣布RATES了。不知道政府是真的想挽救那些中小型企业还是想真的来一次大调整。
" D+ Z1 w+ t, a8 q, v" E9 `- G如果来次调整的话，估计WRITE-OFF就会是个天文数字了。
你说美国政府会不会调整，如果下25BPS的话，会有很多被人家BUY-OUT的机会。
0 _. f0 Y* ^0 V$ E9 [0 ~如果我是中国政府的话，我会趁机买一些美国金融机构的股份，从而加大一些“间接”控制美国经济的POWER或砝码。

月满西楼

Symbol U.S. Dollar Exchange
+ q. G& N% J" v6 |2 S# X% dRate Canadian Dollar Bid Ask
4 Y% ^$ g- j3 ^8 s0 D) lUSDCAD=X 1 Sep 17 1.0260 1.0260 1.0260 1.0264

如花

If you want to convert CAD to USD and do term deposit, you will not benefit from that, because the "interest rate parity"

[ 本帖最后由 如花 于 2007-9-18 08:34 编辑 ]