受到产量持续过剩的影响,石油价格不断下跌。加拿大丰业银行(Scotiabank)经济学家、大宗商品市场专家帕特里夏·摩尔(Patricia Mohr)却认为,油价已经触底并即将反弹。( |% A% j1 D9 F5 ?
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摩尔昨日发布报告表示,西德克萨斯中质原油(WTI)价格已经低于“半周期保本成本,即60-61美元/桶”。; C r8 m0 T3 X. G3 p) [0 _: P
我的预测 - 2015 年: 9 T# l6 ~8 O9 J) w8 V1. 油价继续小降, 然后稍升, 最后维持在$50 到 $60间 波动; b& q+ y4 S) {! V% u/ f+ ?2. 房价暴跌 30%到45%; & D- T# P) e# @3 v3. Unemployment rate may increase 7 to 8%; a5 Y0 x4 \, w! i7 o4. Grocery prices may increase 5% to 10%; 9 r$ n9 f/ K9 P/ d7 t5. Interest rate may increase 0.25% to 2% in order to control inflation rate within 1% to 3%;& @+ m2 F* [& ?8 f
6. Stock price may decrease and stock market will show significant ups and downs; ; J' g2 J- w0 [% g7. Social benefits may decrease and some social aid programs will close; / f# r" ?, `' [% o" O5 u8. Personal and corporate income taxes may increase slightly; and 9 @7 s5 ~8 \6 I8 N' E9. GST/HST may increase. 0 y* x/ d2 p# c* `4 I/ k& x7 k- E, o
Personal viewpoints for your reference.