待售房40%的空置率说明什么？

lalah

原帖由 紫光 于 2007-2-26 16:14 发表
9 @5 t8 L4 v# l; p( k社会上的房屋总量在edmonton少说点20万套以上。
待售的房子有8万套？？？

/ r, f0 z" O% j40% 是俺发帖是引的calgary 的数据。不知道edmonton是多少。

【秋】

learned a lot

lalah

原帖由 Homework 于 2007-2-26 15:45 发表
如果是这样引起的空置率高，那么空置率应该是集中在相对低价位的房子，如果由此引起供大于求，想买小房子的人就有希望了。
/ c" Z, F* j$ A" o8 Y, N现在卡尔加里的小房子涨疯了，差区30年左右的townhouse和一般地区10年左右的single h ...

有道理，如果按照WST关于住房空置的解释，那么未来calgary 的小房子有可能会供过于求，“想买小房子的人有希望了”。
4 c1 w: ~- A  M" c/ S& @# Y
) K" K+ ^4 H4 b& T" U我好像自己的脑袋不够用 ，听听大家的好处多啊!

wallyy

原帖由 lalah 于 2007-2-26 17:07 发表
2 ^! ?9 O7 r3 U: E- G6 m$ O) c

5 \4 M6 P. }) @% Y+ g; M

那么，待售房空置率是怎么算出来的呢？

, U% I: ?+ W7 Z- L' ^

( ~# Y& D- a- u  i1 c& P4 G待售房空置率基本上也就是按以下公式算出来的
, ^2 l  z* u, a6 S' d% n待售房空置率=（待售的和待租房屋）/社会上的房屋总量
6 \# R. }: O/ F
个人认为，若卡加利房屋市场交易活跃而待售房达40%的空置率，在较大程度上说明是该市场上的投资型购房较多。

[ 本帖最后由 wallyy 于 2007-2-26 22:55 编辑 ]

flagship

原帖由 wallyy 于 2007-2-26 22:37 发表
* D! O' l0 o: n! w" {

3 q# u" K) c% L& E- o
待售房空置率基本上也就是按以下公式算出来的
待售房空置率=（待售的和待租房屋）/社会上的房屋总量
2 \8 a9 n: g9 K7 n; V
0 a9 }$ e: G6 i; N个人认为，若卡加利房屋市场交易活跃而待售房达40%的空置率，在较大程度上说明是该市场上的投资型 ...

! i% {' s/ a! D8 r( z+ U
3 I" R; r- }1 n  t6 M# J


其实大家只要看看到底这两个城市还能提供多少工作机会就可以了.

) i  l! t$ H1 t$ ?3 T2 x! @我个人认为： 以长远计，工作机会的增长率直接决定房屋的价格走势。工作机会多了，来的人多了，房屋价格自然就上涨；反之，工作机会如果不增加了，或者减少了，房屋价格自然不会上升，最多维持通货膨胀的水平。（还好，我还学过点经济学）

. g% j1 G* z0 U  ^9 G! I大家认为工作机会还会大大增加吗？有这个迹象吗？如果有，那么，对没有房子的人来说，实在不是好消息啊。

wallyy

原帖由 flagship 于 2007-2-27 11:09 发表


8 c8 O4 N( e9 r5 H0 ]
1 N2 |) h, V6 o) o. M5 R
& j$ _! ~9 q$ m" K  ], Z+ l
其实大家只要看看到底这两个城市还能提供多少工作机会就可以了.

我个人认为： 以长远计，工作机会的增长率直接决定房屋的价格走势。工作机会多了，来的人多了，房屋价格自然就上涨； ...

4 ?$ q& F0 |  f  b

+ g, ]+ h  @; b过去有人来，因为这里生活消费水平低，房价合理。如今卡城、爱城的房价超多伦多，直逼温哥华，其高房价已是全加闻名，再来的人动身之前不会不考虑自己能否承受这里的物价和房价水平。
9 h! d) ^1 |9 S( T" o( K
5 R, C$ p% }8 n" R0 W" W[ 本帖最后由 wallyy 于 2007-2-27 11:55 编辑 ]

smalltown

Go to the website: www.jayman.com
The new houses built by Jayman in Edmonton and Calgary are listed on this website. You will find what the price difference is between them. It is very little.
* e4 x* v* m+ ?  E2 z) M/ c
) w: A2 `1 x8 h; n4 h2 [. O* x[ 本帖最后由 smalltown 于 2007-2-27 12:05 编辑 ]

WST

原帖由 lalah 于 2007-2-26 17:13 发表

& L7 [! _$ P$ d, l7 x
# ]# P. e) S1 {6 |  Z40% 是俺发帖是引的calgary 的数据。不知道edmonton是多少。

" v" |) u$ |7 S! y我认为：待售房空置率=空置待售房/total待售房.
以下是一些相关评论：

But as a new year begins, the Calgary Real Estate Board said the vacancy rate in listed houses has reached 33 per cent, while in condos it is at 40 per cent.
5 w/ t# s* G. V& }) W
* X& w/ j- K0 ~7 q, N% B: X; CMcNaughton said sellers with vacant properties may have bought in hopes of reselling, or recently moved to newly built homes. The next two weeks will say a lot about the 2007 market, she said, with sellers either pulling their properties off the market to rent them, or lowering their prices.

I personally think that lots of the homes that will come onto the market over the next few months are not pure speculators exactly, but rather buyers who acted like speculators, by purchasing a new home and not selling their old one to take advantage of the perpetually rising market. It is this type of behavior which has caused sudden inventory spikes in other markets as new buyers get gradually priced out of the market and new construction continues to add to the total stock of homes.
+ H; Z0 g7 H$ k4 |) |
$ B2 s" F! s& k" D7 V) `Edmonton 应该少很多，大多数待售房有人住。

WST

原帖由 lalah 于 2007-2-26 16:06 发表
smalltown同意，差不多大小和质量的房子，Edmonton 已经比 calgary 的价格差不多少了。
WST说，For the same model new house and similar location, the price in Calgary is about 100K higher than that in ...

2 a2 r: T1 R  ^* ~2 c7 [+ \
! I: o3 Z! d+ [+ tConstruction fee is similar. However,  Lot is more expensive in Calgary. The 100K extra in Calgary is accoording to the information from Builder. You may verify that at the show home Carlton, Macewan. They sell same model in both Calgary and Edmonton.

lalah

谢谢你的解答。

我也觉得这个定义比较合理。

醉酒当歌

http://www.edmontonchina.com/viewthread.php?tid=76528
2 s* |3 k* J& e& O! E3 b+ X
市场上到底有多少闲置待售的房子? - Sellers are overly optimistic

CBC关于卡城待售房40%空置率的原文 -- 醉酒真的预测失败了吗?

Sellers are overly optimistic: real estate agent
6 I! B: i& o' s0 e* dLast Updated: Monday, January 15, 2007 | 3:32 PM MT
CBC News
At least a third of condos and houses on the market in Calgary are vacant, prompting concern from a real estate agent that sellers aren't being realistic about the price they hope to get for their properties.

"Sellers are having a hard time grasping that we are not in early last year's market," said Kristen McNaughton, a Calgary real estate agent.
1 z% d2 u! Y/ ^* Q# T6 y
/ C- {' v8 m& I8 n2 f"In the fall, we definitely saw a dip, and it cooled down to more of a balanced market and that's what needed to happen."

* y+ c% \. W- Q+ xHousing prices soared 38 per cent in Calgary in 2006, with the average price for a single-family home at $396,870. In 2005, prices went up 18 per cent.
4 Z" s) i. y: c, Q* i: q7 x& ^3 Y
% y) [/ N1 q9 k% r3 A1 QBut as a new year begins, the Calgary Real Estate Board said the vacancy rate in listed houses has reached 33 per cent, while in condos it is at 40 per cent.
( V, u0 f+ R1 g. T
2 |& l! f: v  E6 [- |- K% yMcNaughton said sellers with vacant properties may have bought in hopes of reselling, or recently moved to newly built homes. The next two weeks will say a lot about the 2007 market, she said, with sellers either pulling their properties off the market to rent them, or lowering their prices.

1 V$ n/ H6 [, K+ N0 f6 ~" J' F1 rContinue Article

) n+ F- T& C3 n6 N7 E5 EKevin Clark, president of the Calgary Real Estate Board, said almost half of the properties that sold in December went at a reduced price.
# _( I+ G" R( A- T% B
"There are properties that were overpriced, are still overpriced and haven't sold, and therefore becoming vacant," he said.

Clients unwilling to drop their prices are banking on the possibility that the market will again get red hot, McNaughton said.
, \+ ?0 k1 H+ R+ w: E+ b

原帖由 lalah 于 2007-2-26 13:26 发表
8 M# M" V) e0 L) H6 W6 [刚刚看了个帖子，有筒子话 今年CBC 称calgary的待售房40%的空置（我已经找不到那个贴了 ），请问这能说明什么问题？或者说它会有什么后果？凭直觉，我觉得这是炒作的结果，有人不需要用房子，但是买了， ...

lalah

谢谢提供这么详细的原文。

) n# f- G+ b$ b) \0 s% ~9 c希望 calgary 市场真的能够 cooled down to more of a balanced market

贝壳

学习ing……

lulu